Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar is expected to consolidate within a range of 7.1000 to 7.1180. In the long term, the US Dollar’s previous weakness has stabilised. It is anticipated to trade between 7.0920 and 7.1280, according to UOB Group’s FX analysts.
In the past 24 hours, the USD showed a strong rise, reaching a high of 7.1178, exceeding expectations of range-trading between 7.0900 and 7.1080. This sharp increase seems excessive, and further advancement is not expected. The US Dollar is more likely to consolidate within a narrower range of 7.1000 to 7.1180.
Usd Currency Path
In a recent analysis, it was suggested that the USD might drop below 7.0860, unless it breached 7.1150, the ‘strong resistance’ level. The USD unexpectedly rose and surpassed this level, indicating that its weakness has stabilised. Moving forward, it is expected to range-trade between 7.0920 and 7.1280.
The FXStreet Insights Team compiles selected market observations from experts, providing content and insights from both internal and external analysts.
The recent sharp rise in USD/CNH that broke our 7.1150 resistance level has changed our perspective. The dollar’s weakness appears to have stabilized, so we now expect the pair to trade within a range. For the coming weeks, derivatives traders should prepare for movement between 7.0920 and 7.1280.
Given this expected range, strategies that profit from low volatility, such as selling an iron condor, could be effective. Traders could consider selling call options with a strike price above 7.1300 and put options with a strike price below 7.0900. This approach benefits from time decay as long as the pair remains within this channel.
Economic Data And Market Impact
This view is supported by recent economic data, with this week’s US Core CPI print coming in at 3.1%, just above expectations. This reinforces the Federal Reserve’s current neutral stance, limiting strong directional moves for the dollar. On the other side, China’s official manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.1, signaling stability but not the robust growth needed to drive significant yuan strength.
Implied volatility for one-month USD/CNH options has fallen to multi-month lows, now sitting around 4.2%. Such low volatility makes selling premium an attractive proposition for traders who agree that a period of consolidation is likely. This is a noticeable shift from the market conditions we saw back in the 2023-2024 period, when the pair frequently tested levels above 7.30 amid higher uncertainty.
