Insights 
VT 
The Euro (EUR) is predicted to fluctuate within the range of 1.1580 to 1.1625. In the long term, there may be a downward trend, potentially revisiting the 1.1540 level.
On Tuesday, the EUR dropped to a low of 1.1597, closing modestly higher at 1.1610 on Wednesday. This slight recovery indicates that the EUR is more likely to trade within the range of 1.1585 to 1.1625 rather than weaken further.
In the past week, downward momentum has begun to develop for the EUR. The currency may continue to show a downward trend unless it breaks above the resistance level of 1.1660. Current expectations suggest that the EUR could retest the recent low of 1.1540.
The analysis is provided by UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia. They forecast movements based on recent price actions and potential market developments.
We see the Euro consolidating in a tight band, likely between 1.1580 and 1.1625 for now. However, underlying downward momentum is building, which is reminiscent of the conditions we observed back in late 2021. This pressure is largely driven by the diverging monetary policies of a hawkish Federal Reserve and a more hesitant European Central Bank.
The latest data from October 2025 supports this bearish outlook for the pair in the coming weeks. US Core CPI remains stubbornly high at 2.9%, while the Eurozone’s equivalent has cooled to 2.2%, giving the Fed more scope to maintain higher interest rates. Furthermore, solid US Q3 GDP growth of 2.5% contrasts with the recent weakness in German industrial production figures, weighing on the shared currency.
For derivative traders, this environment suggests that buying puts or establishing bear put spreads over the next one to three weeks is a viable strategy. The 1.1540 level, a significant support zone that was tested in the past, serves as a logical initial price target. This bearish bias remains intact as long as the pair does not breach the strong resistance at 1.1660.
Current low implied volatility makes option premiums relatively attractive for taking on this directional view. Traders should use a sustained move above the 1.1660 resistance as a clear signal to unwind short positions. A break of this level would indicate that the downward momentum we are currently tracking has failed to materialize.
