Insights 
VT 
The EUR/USD exchange rate may not reach 1.1450 today, with further declines possible. Current downward momentum is slowing, supported by positive divergence, making it unlikely EUR will hit 1.1450. Resistance stands at 1.1500, with stabilisation potential above 1.1515.
The longer-term view remains bearish for the EUR, with a recent narrative indicating a shift from 1.1490 to a focus on 1.1450 after a low of 1.1472. A break below 1.1450 could pivot attention to August’s low near 1.1390. The strong resistance level is set at 1.1555, previously at 1.1580.
Strategy For Positioning
Given the view that the Euro is likely to weaken, we see opportunities in positioning for a move lower. A straightforward strategy would be to buy EUR/USD put options with strike prices at or below 1.1500. These options would profit if the pair drops towards the 1.1450 target level within the next one to three weeks.
This bearish sentiment is reinforced by recent economic data divergence. Last week’s flash Eurozone inflation reading for October 2025 came in at a subdued 1.8%, cooling faster than anticipated and giving the European Central Bank room to remain cautious. In contrast, the US jobs report from last Friday showed a solid gain of 205,000, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates firm.
We have seen this pattern before, particularly in the 2021-2022 period when policy divergence between the Fed and ECB drove a significant downtrend in the EUR/USD. The current market dynamic, with a relatively robust US economy and a more fragile Eurozone recovery, echoes that period. This historical context supports the idea that the path of least resistance for the pair is lower.
Bear Call Spread As An Alternative
For traders who believe the Euro will not rally but are wary of a sharp fall, a bear call spread is a viable alternative. One could sell a call option with a strike price at the 1.1555 strong resistance level and buy a higher call, for instance at 1.1600, to limit risk. This strategy generates income and profits as long as the Euro remains below that 1.1555 ceiling through the options’ expiration.
