According to UOB Group analysts, USD/JPY is expected to fluctuate between 144.15 and 145.25

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jul 4, 2025

    The US Dollar is predicted to trade within a range of 144.15 to 145.25 against the Japanese Yen. In a broader view, experts suggest the Dollar has entered a phase where it will fluctuate between 143.50 and 145.95.

    Market Movements

    Recent market observations noted a spike to 145.23, which is seen as excessive. This suggests that the Dollar is not expected to rise further but will instead stabilise within the specified range.

    A revision in the Dollar’s outlook revealed it exceeded a previous technical target of 142.70. Following this, the currency broke above a resistance level of 144.60, implying a slowing downward momentum and range trading between 143.50 and 145.95.

    Information presented includes speculative and forecasted figures and does not substitute personalised advice. The potential risks and uncertainties associated with trading and investments must be acknowledged before proceeding. Anyone engaging in trading activities should conduct thorough research independently.

    Market participants have observed tighter movements between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen in recent sessions. With recent highs reaching 145.23 — which we interpret as an overreach — there’s evidence to support theories that current trajectories are overextended and could taper off. That particular spike, as many of us have noticed, lacks the kind of backing that would justify a sustained breakout. It’s not merely that the Dollar has found resistance; it’s that it pressed against a level traders had been watching closely for weeks: the 145 handle.


    Following this, what stands out is the breach beyond 144.60 — previously a known resistance threshold. Once price action accelerated past that point, it cut through a level that had historically held. That raised plenty of eyebrows, but structurally, the breach wasn’t sticky. It didn’t hold ground in a convincing manner. What we’re more likely seeing is a sharp moderation in selling momentum. That doesn’t suggest a sustained climb from here; rather, it signals a return to mid-range negotiation. So instead of committing to directional bets, it may prove wiser to focus more on responsive than predictive trades.

    Price Dynamics

    Let’s also keep in mind that the Dollar overshooting its old technical barrier of 142.70 only to swing higher sheds light on a fading trend, not a fresh acceleration. If anything, it’s a cue to watch for mean reversion dynamics inside the broader range now reinforced between 143.50 and 145.95.

    As such, price swings are expected to conform to this well-defined band for the time being. This doesn’t indicate a lack of movement. Instead, what we’re being shown is a sideways shuffle under a ceiling and above a floor that aren’t giving way — at least not yet. This informs how we might manage positions. Lower conviction about either breakout points makes short-duration strategies potentially more attractive for now. Those with exposure on both sides may want to maintain tighter stops and refrain from leverage-heavy positions within the boundary zone.

    We should be calibrating accordingly. In this kind of structure, high-conviction long entries near 143.50 or short setups near 145.90 seem practical — with a mind to exit before the floor or ceiling comes into play again. Patience will likely be needed, and false breaks could become more frequent. Instead of chasing direction, keeping a disciplined eye on the midrange reaction levels may yield more consistent outcomes.

    Lastly, none of this negates the inherent risk tied to leveraged products. Managing volatility remains the priority.

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