Insights 
VT 
The Australian Dollar is expected to range-trade between 0.6480 and 0.6530. Analysts at UOB Group anticipate further declines, with 0.6440 as the next level to monitor.
In a 24-hour view, the AUD dropped to 0.6443 before rebounding. It was predicted to range-trade between 0.6460 and 0.6520, ultimately trading within a range of 0.6482 to 0.6523. Current momentum indicators remain flat, suggesting range-trading is likely to continue between 0.6480 and 0.6530.
Potential For Further Declines
Over a 1-3 week period, the AUD has shown potential for further declines. Despite hitting a low of 0.6443, there has been no evident increase in downward momentum. Provided the strong resistance level of 0.6545 is not breached, the AUD could still test 0.6440. The view that there is potential for further declines remains consistent.
These observations have been compiled by the FXStreet Insights Team, who gather market insights from both commercial and other analysts to provide a comprehensive market perspective.
The Australian dollar appears stuck in a narrow channel, and we expect it to trade mostly between 0.6480 and 0.6530 for now. While immediate downward pressure has eased, the overall outlook still points toward potential weakness. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, suggesting a lack of conviction from either buyers or sellers in the short term.
This sideways movement is happening as we see a clear policy difference between our central bank and the US Federal Reserve. Recent US jobs and inflation data from September 2025 continue to support the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rate stance, which keeps the US dollar strong. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia has held its cash rate steady at 4.35% for several months, showing less urgency to tighten policy further.
Commodity Prices Pressure
Adding to the pressure on the Aussie dollar are key commodity prices, with iron ore recently slipping below $100 per tonne due to weaker industrial demand forecasts from China. As our largest export, softening iron ore prices directly weigh on our terms of trade and the currency’s value. This fundamental headwind makes any significant rally in the AUD/USD unlikely in the coming weeks.
For derivative traders, this environment suggests selling options to collect premium could be a prudent strategy. Selling call options with strike prices at or above the strong resistance level of 0.6545 would take advantage of the expected range and the low probability of a sharp upward break. This strategy profits from both time decay and the pair failing to rally.
Looking out over the next few weeks, we should be prepared for a potential test of the 0.6440 support level. If the current 0.6480 floor gives way, buying put options or establishing bearish put spreads could offer a defined-risk way to profit from the next leg down. This is a scenario we must watch for as long as the price remains below that key 0.6545 resistance.
This price action is reminiscent of the choppy trading we saw in late 2023, when similar central bank policy divergence kept the AUD/USD suppressed for an extended period. During that time, rallies were consistently sold off, rewarding those who were positioned for continued range-trading with a downward bias. Any move above the 0.6545 level would signal that our current bearish view needs to be reconsidered.
