Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could reach up to $200,000 by the end of 2025, with an intermediate target of $135,000 by the end of the third quarter. They identify two primary factors for this projection: substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs during the second quarter and a rise in demand from corporate treasuries.

In the second quarter of 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries acquired approximately 245,000 BTC. Since January 2024, ETFs have seen over $48 billion in net buying, contributing to the projected growth in Bitcoin’s value.

What’s been laid out here is a forecast resting on measurable demand. Standard Chartered’s projection frames the price of Bitcoin within a timeline that hinges on intake from two sources: exchange-traded funds and company reserves. They’re not speaking hypothetically – they’re counting coins, quite literally. That 245,000 BTC removed from active circulation has a very mechanical effect on supply, and as we’ve learned from earlier cycles, when supply thins out and interest doesn’t fade, conditions tilt upward.

The $48 billion that found its way into spot ETFs is not just a headline number. It reflects an alignment among institutional players who operate within strict mandates. Their consistent net purchases tell us that these products aren’t simply trading tools – they’re being used as longer-term vehicles. That’s the type of base-layer stability that rarely existed in prior cycles.

Looking shortly ahead, the actions of treasurers at appointed firms should be read not as isolated decisions, but as part of a comparative response to macro conditions. These decisions typically trail softer sovereign yields and reflect a cautious appetite to preserve purchasing power. Central banks continue to communicate patience on reverting policy to neutral, and if guidance remains fluid, the appeal of a fixed-supply asset grows stronger in contrast.

From where we sit, this presents several clear takeaways. Pricing will not likely adjust evenly or politely across time; instead, higher volumes from institutions can cause abrupt but contained stretches in volatility. As traders, we should now be anticipating sharp price gaps rather than gradual drift. That matters if you’re managing collateral, especially where margin ratios are sensitive to markups that arrive across weekends or low-volume hours. Keeping the books slightly more liquid than usual in off-peak windows may spare capital from unnecessary stress.

Patterns in long-dated options positioning suggest that end-of-quarter optimism is already being priced in by those further out on the volatility curve. From this we see that confidence is not shallow. Vol sells, particularly across September strikes, now reflect an embedded belief in higher spot values, but they also introduce skew across wings. We’ve noticed that the call side is becoming progressively crowded, which invites reflexive adjustments on moves that may accelerate under low sell-side inventory pressure. Inflated implieds make short gamma unappealing without hedged plays, so cautious layering of spreads or reduction of outright naked legs is warranted.

Moreover, we’re interpreting the current ETF flows not just as price-inducing inputs, but also as a volatility dampener over time. As more BTC is stashed into these vehicles, the fraction actively traded on open markets shrinks, making outsized directional positioning harder to unwind without price impact. This will influence delta hedging efficiency and term structure flattening nearer key expiry dates. Be attuned to rollover flow when coinciding with sharp ETF inflows or outflows – that’s where we see the potential for spreads to misprice.

Lastly, when treasuries act, they often don’t announce it. That discretion means lift comes quietly, and you’ll only notice it through subtle imbalances in order books. Watch the premiums on futures and the gaps between forwards and swap rates—they whisper louder than headlines. If those begin to widen again with no accompanying news, it’s likely just another quiet batch of buyers, accumulating slowly, but with conviction.