Insights 
VT 
S&P Global forecasts global tariff costs to reach $1.2 trillion in 2025, with approximately two-thirds impacting consumers. The firm considers its estimate conservative due to rising input costs and diminished outputs, viewing tariffs as taxes on supply chains.
Tariffs are customs duties on certain imports designed to aid local producers by giving them a price edge over foreign goods. These protectionist tools are often used with trade barriers and import quotas to bolster domestic markets.
Difference Between Tariffs And Taxes
Tariffs differ from taxes in that they are prepaid at entry points, while taxes are collected at the point of purchase. Tariffs are paid by importers, whereas taxes are levied on individuals and businesses.
Economists are divided on the effectiveness of tariffs. Some argue they protect domestic industries and balance trade, while others believe they increase long-term prices and can lead to trade disputes.
Donald Trump plans to leverage tariffs to bolster the US economy and reduce personal income taxes, particularly targeting imports from Mexico, China, and Canada. These countries were key to US imports in 2024. The strategy is part of his campaign leading up to the 2024 election.
With global tariff costs expected to hit $1.2 trillion in 2025, we are seeing a direct impact on consumer prices and corporate profits. The latest September CPI report showed inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.8%, suggesting that a large portion of these new costs are being passed on. Companies are feeling the pressure on their supply chains, which acts as a direct tax on their operations.
Market Jitters And Economic Indicators
In response, we are watching major retail and automotive companies revise their fourth-quarter earnings guidance downward, citing rising input costs. Traders should consider buying protective put options on indices like the S&P 500 or on sector-specific ETFs that have heavy exposure to Chinese and Mexican imports. This strategy provides a hedge against the expected downturn in corporate profitability heading into the new year.
This trade uncertainty is creating market jitters, much like we saw during the trade disputes of 2018-2019, when the VIX frequently spiked above 20. With the VIX index now hovering near 19, we believe there is more room for it to rise as retaliatory tariff announcements become more common. Long positions on VIX futures or purchasing VIX call options could be profitable as traders price in more risk.
The persistent inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance, giving the US dollar significant strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed steadily in recent months, now trading around 106.5 as interest rate expectations remain high. We see an opportunity in using currency derivatives to bet on continued dollar strength against the currencies of major trading partners being targeted.
Given the inflation data, the derivatives market is now pricing in over a 50% chance of another Fed rate hike in December. Traders should position for higher short-term interest rates using instruments like SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) futures. We must also monitor the yield curve, as continued rate hikes in this environment could deepen its inversion and signal a coming economic slowdown.
