Insights 
VT 
The USD/KRW is showing upward momentum, remaining above the 200-day moving average. The trend is targeting 1445, with potential to extend towards 1457 if the support at 1417 remains intact.
The USD/KRW has broken out from a multi-month base, establishing itself above the 200-DMA, indicating renewed upward movement. It is approaching its interim target at 1445 and could continue towards the upper limit of an ascending channel between 1454 and 1457.
Possible Pullbacks and Support
A temporary pullback is possible, but the recent low of 1417 is expected to provide support. Maintaining this support level may lead to further upward movement towards 1454/1457.
Given the sustained upward momentum in USD/KRW, we should consider strategies that benefit from a further rise in the exchange rate. The pair holding above its 200-day moving average is a strong bullish signal, making long positions in USD/KRW futures an attractive option. Buying call options with strike prices around the 1445 target would allow us to participate in the expected climb while defining our maximum risk.
This view is strengthened by recent economic data showing a divergence between the US and South Korean economies. Last week’s US jobs report for October 2025 showed unexpected resilience, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer. In contrast, South Korea’s preliminary trade balance for October posted a wider-than-expected deficit, largely due to slumping chip exports, which are down 8% year-over-year.
While the primary trend is up, we should plan for potential pullbacks and use the 1417 level as a key defensive line. For traders looking to generate income, selling out-of-the-money put options with a strike price below 1417 could be a viable strategy. This approach assumes that any dip will be shallow and that this support level will hold, allowing us to keep the premium.
Significance of Trading Levels
The levels around 1450 are significant, as we haven’t seen sustained trading at these heights since the global risk-off environment back in late 2022. To position for a move toward the 1454/1457 channel resistance while managing costs, we could implement a bull call spread. This would involve buying a call option with a lower strike, like 1445, and selling another call with a higher strike, such as 1457, to reduce the net premium paid.
