Insights 
VT 
The Canadian Dollar is experiencing a mild gain against a mixed USD at the week’s onset. Canadian employment data for October exceeded expectations with a gain of 66.6k jobs, but the specifics showcased unemployment decline and increased wages driven by part-time work, despite soft hours worked. This supports a stable policy outlook for the Bank of Canada and has slightly narrowed 2Y swap spreads by around 10bps.
Technical analysis of the USD/CAD chart indicates that the upward trend of USD has halted near the 1.4150/60 resistance level. USD’s momentum shows potential weakening as it slips through 1.4080 and 1.4040 support levels. This may result in further slight dips in USD. There exists a psychological support at 1.4000, with a broader support area between 1.3890 and 1.3925, beyond which more extensive declines may occur.
Canadian Employment Data Impact
The better-than-expected Canadian employment report from last Friday, November 7, 2025, is reinforcing our view that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy steady. This stronger jobs data helps the Canadian dollar by narrowing the interest rate gap with the United States. The underlying fundamentals are providing a firm base for the currency right now.
This outlook is further supported by Canada’s latest inflation reading for October 2025, which came in at a persistent 2.8%, keeping pressure on the central bank to avoid early rate cuts. Additionally, with WTI crude oil prices holding firm above $80 per barrel, the economic backdrop for the loonie is solid. These factors combined suggest limited upside for the USD/CAD pair in the near term.
From a trading perspective, the stall in USD/CAD near the 1.4150 resistance level suggests that selling out-of-the-money call options is a viable strategy. For instance, selling December 2025 calls with a strike price of 1.4200 could allow traders to collect premium while the pair struggles to advance. This approach bets on the pair remaining below that key technical ceiling in the coming weeks.
USD/CAD Trading Strategy
We are watching the 1.4000 level closely as a key psychological support for the US dollar. A decisive break below this mark could trigger a more significant move down towards the 1.3900 support zone, a level we last saw in late September 2025. Looking back at similar patterns in early 2024, a failure to break major resistance often preceded a quick retracement to the next significant support level.
