Insights 
VT 
Gold prices in India saw an increase on Thursday. The price per gram rose to 9,388.38 Indian Rupees (INR) from INR 9,376.56 the previous day.
For larger purchases, Gold is now priced at INR 109,504.20 per tola, up from INR 109,366.40. In terms of international measurement, a troy ounce of Gold is valued at INR 292,011.40.
Middle East Conflict Impact
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its seventh day, raising tensions in the Middle East. This geopolitical uncertainty is affecting market sentiment and impacting Gold prices.
US tariffs on the pharmaceutical sector have added an extra layer of unpredictability to the markets. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but projected two rate cuts by the end of 2025.
Thursday saw US banks closed for Juneteenth, suggesting lower market liquidity. Gold’s price movements remain influenced by US Dollar dynamics and overall market conditions.
Gold remains a popular safe-haven investment during times of global instability and economic uncertainty. Central banks are substantial buyers, particularly from emerging markets such as China, India, and Turkey.
Factors Influencing Gold Prices
Gold prices primarily depend on geopolitical factors, interest rates, and US Dollar strength. As a non-yielding asset, Gold does not provide returns like stocks or bonds, affecting its attractiveness during various market conditions.
The small uptick in domestic gold prices—moving from ₹9,376.56 to ₹9,388.38 per gram—can easily go unnoticed by those only tracking headline figures. But for traders observing the broader picture, this adjustment is not trivial; it reflects an undercurrent of demand amid heightened investor caution. At the larger scale, we noted a similarly moderate increase in per tola rates and in the internationally standardised troy ounce figures, all of which suggest that buyers are opting for safety. This move is not purely speculative—it’s an indication of how macro events are beginning to frame short-term trading strategies.
Heightened regional tensions, particularly stemming from hostilities in the Middle East, are being priced in. As we monitor this conflict, it’s clear that it’s adding a layer of risk that encourages safe-haven flows into gold. These are not temporary reactions either; history has shown that when such uncertainties persist beyond a few days, they tend to anchor short-term volatility in precious metals.
Moreover, we see additional friction introduced through US policy decisions. Tariff adjustments, especially those targeting sectors like pharmaceuticals, introduce another factor influencing sentiment. It enhances USD volatility, which in turn pulls on gold’s inverse correlation with the greenback. More unpredictability here often supports bullion positions.
The Federal Reserve choosing to hold rates was widely expected, but projections of two potential cuts by the end of next year were noted with interest. Rate cuts, even delayed ones, clear a path for gold to remain a favourable alternative. When yields on interest-bearing assets are expected to decline over time, demand can shift toward stores of value. We aren’t yet in the zone of price spikes, but the trajectory is becoming easier to read: if those cuts gain consensus among policymakers, metals could largely benefit.
On Thursday, market participation in the US was lower due to the Juneteenth holiday. That drop in liquidity gives context to the lack of aggressive gold price movement despite ample drivers. When volume returns, we should be prepared for more directional follow-through, particularly if USD strength wavers or if macro data breaks trend expectations.
From our lens, large-scale buying from central banks—especially those outside the G7—remains a key structural factor. These institutions aren’t short-term participants. Their activity implies confidence in gold’s long-term value stability, reinforcing the broader support below current levels. That said, price reactions remain sensitive to shifts in interest rate expectations and macroeconomic statistics, particularly those out of the US where aggressive monetary signals still ripple across asset classes.
Looking at the coming weeks, attention should be placed on upcoming central bank communications and geopolitical updates. If tensions in the Middle East extend past forecasts or broaden to involve more actors, price floors in bullion could harden. Equally, inflation releases and labour figures from the US will frame the likelihood of a rate guide shift sooner than expected. It’s at this intersection we find tradeable opportunities, especially using options structures that allow flex for implied volatility.
For now, short-term call spreads or protective collars may offer balance, especially given the relatively muted volatility levels seen so far this month. We recommend staying adaptive, reassessing hedges frequently, and watching 10-year yield trends as a proxy for rate sentiment. The current environment calls for a keen eye on currency movements too, particularly USD/INR dynamics, as they directly affect hedged positions for India-based exposure.
Until the fundamental drivers reverse or lose influence, the yellow metal may continue to find support on dips. Still, responsiveness to intraweek shifts will allow for more efficient capital positioning.
