The Dow Futures cycle, started from the April 2025 low, is nearing its end, with a potential final push to complete the impulsive cycle. The one-hour chart shows wave (3) peaking at 45,312, followed by a wave (4) pullback concluding at 43,467 in a zigzag formation.

Wave (5) is progressing as a lower-degree impulse, beginning from wave (4) with wave ((i)) reaching 43,864, and wave ((ii)) pulling back to 43,542. Further highs are anticipated until wave 1 of (5) concludes, followed by a potential wave 2 pullback. Maintaining above 43,467 should attract buyer interest, supporting further increases.

Eur Usd And Gbp Usd Analysis

The EUR/USD remains near 1.1550 amid US ISM data, with the ISM Services PMI dipping slightly in July. GBP/USD fluctuates below 1.3300, affected by potential September Fed rate cuts and upcoming BoE policy updates.

Gold stabilises around $3,370 per ounce, limited by US dollar gains and a rebound in US yields. DeFi gains traction as risk appetite shifts capital from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, enhancing the total value locked and user base. Euro area shows resilience boosted by the EU-US deal, though risks of a rate cut linger.

We see potential for a final push higher in Dow Futures, completing the cycle that began in April 2025. Traders might consider buying on pullbacks, using call options or long futures positions as long as the index remains above the key 43,467 support level. This view is supported by last week’s unexpectedly strong US jobs report for July 2025, which showed the addition of 250,000 non-farm payrolls, calming fears of a sharp slowdown.

For EUR/USD, we are watching the 1.1550 level closely as a pivot point. The recent dip in the US ISM Services PMI to 53.5 in July 2025, down from 54.1 in June, hints at a slight cooling in the US economy. This could present opportunities for short-term long positions on the pair, especially if upcoming inflation data confirms this cooling trend.

Market Expectations And Strategies

We expect continued choppiness in GBP/USD below the 1.3300 mark. The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025, following their pivot away from the hawkish stance we saw earlier in the year. Traders should prepare for increased volatility around the next Bank of England announcement, potentially using straddles or strangles to profit from a significant price move in either direction.

Gold appears capped around $3,370 for now, struggling against a resilient US dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield, which rebounded to 4.75% last week, is acting as a major headwind for the non-yielding metal. We would wait for a clear break above this level, or a drop in yields back below 4.5%, before committing to significant long positions in gold derivatives.

We are observing a clear shift in risk appetite within the digital asset space, with capital flowing out of Bitcoin. Looking back, data from July 2025 showed Ethereum-based perpetual futures volumes surging by 30% while Bitcoin’s dominance index fell by 4% to its lowest point this year. This suggests that traders should focus on opportunities in Ethereum and promising DeFi tokens, which are likely to outperform in the near term.

The Euro area is showing some resilience, but we remain cautious due to lingering risks of a European Central Bank rate cut. The trade agreement on critical minerals, finalized back in June 2025, has certainly boosted industrial sentiment, particularly in Germany. Therefore, we recommend hedging any long European equity positions until the ECB provides clearer forward guidance at their next meeting.

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