Insights 
VT 
Gold Projections
Projections from Citi suggest Gold prices might climb to $2,500 – $2,700 by the latter half of 2026. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is anticipated to show slight improvement, while labour market trends indicate a slowdown in job growth.
June’s Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show fewer jobs added compared to May’s figures. Gold pricing in India adapts international rates (USD/INR) to local currency and units, updated to reflect current market conditions.
FAQs explain Gold as a safe-haven asset during unstable times, mainly bought by central banks. Gold also has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar and Treasuries, with prices influenced by geopolitical factors and interest rates.
Market Behavior
This recent uptick in gold prices within the Indian market reflects a larger narrative driven by global money flows, rate projections, and investor sentiment. With gram prices touching ₹9,145.52 and per tola figures breaching ₹106,672, it’s not just domestic demand at play. What we’re seeing is a direct consequence of softening interest rates expectations in the United States, where ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.242%. This move tells us something clear: fixed income is beginning to lose some of its shine. As yields ease, the non-yielding nature of gold becomes less of a drawback and more appealing by comparison.
Now, if we take a closer look at the expectations baked into the market, it’s the 60 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025—anticipated by the broader consensus—that gives this yellow metal further support. The delay of those cuts to next year, instead of near-term adjustments, suggests a moderate pace of policy relaxation. Traders know that gold thrives when rates are low or falling, particularly because a reduced return on cash sets a more favourable scene for long positions in metals.
Citi’s medium-term projection, forecasting gold prices between $2,500 and $2,700 within two years, won’t come as much of a surprise to anyone closely following macro indicators. These are not speculative guesses but appear to be grounded in trends that stretch far beyond manufacturing data or jobs reports alone. Even though June’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to inch forward, it reflects stabilisation rather than acceleration.
On employment, the expected dip in Nonfarm Payrolls compared to May doesn’t scream recession, but it does hint at a cooling phase—where hiring slows ahead of broader economic moderation. We’d interpret that to mean inflation is under less pressure moving forward, increasing the likelihood that policymakers opt for looser conditions. Again, all of this favours a stronger case for commodities that have historically been stores of value.
Meanwhile, India’s domestic gold pricing is kept in sync with global markets using the USD-INR exchange rate as an anchor. Any moves in currency valuations or US spot prices are reflected almost immediately in retail and wholesale rates. For derivative markets, every adjustment presents both a challenge and an opening—particularly when global benchmarks shift ahead of domestic adjustments.
Commonly, gold behaves counter to the US dollar and US bond performance. When rate expectations move lower and technical indicators align with macro headwinds, the asset attracts those seeking a hedge or longer-term store of purchasing power. That inverse relationship is no theory—it’s a relationship that continues to deliver insight when examined alongside central bank activity, which remains tilted toward accumulation in uncertain climates.
We’re not just watching the usual suspects anymore. Traders paying close attention should recognise that small changes in yield curves, labour data, and forward guidance by central banks are all creating directional possibilities moving into the next fortnight. The confluence of marginal employment weakening in the US and reduced appetite for interest-bearing instruments should prompt revisions to short-term strategic positioning, especially for those trading options or holding leveraged exposure.
As we navigate the early part of the quarter, there’s mounting evidence that macro forces can overpower short-lived corrections in technical setups. Positioning strategies will have to be adjusted accordingly—specifically dialling in sensitivity to data releases and favouring levels that reflect not just local premium fluctuations but broader real yield expectations. By treating each data point not in isolation but as part of a broader policy signal, it becomes easier to stay ahead of directional pivots. These aren’t just numbers—they’re cues.
