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China’s Oil Import Trends
China continues to import a high volume of crude oil, with September imports recorded at 47.25 million tons or 11.5 million barrels per day. This represents a 3.9% year-on-year increase, although it is a 4.5% decline from the previous month due to calendar effects.
In the first nine months of the year, China’s oil imports increased by 2.6% compared to the same period last year. Factors contributing to this include reserve purchases, which help manage rising oil supply levels.
Data indicates tight import quotas are impacting independent refineries, limiting their imports from Russia and Iran. It is important for reserve purchases to continue as they play a role in maintaining market stability amidst expected oversupply.
While oil prices recovered after a recent drop, the US has shown willingness to negotiate trade terms. Organisations like the FXStreet Insights Team compile observations and expert insights for clearer market analysis.
China’s Influence on Oil Prices
We see that robust crude oil imports from China are providing a significant floor for prices, preventing a sharper decline. Their September 2025 imports of 11.5 million barrels per day show a continued appetite for oil, even if it is slightly down from August. This strong buying is absorbing a lot of the excess supply currently on the market.
However, this demand appears fragile because much of it is for building strategic reserves rather than immediate economic consumption. With China’s manufacturing PMI for September 2025 coming in at a modest 50.9, we know their industrial engine is not running at full steam. This makes the market highly dependent on their continued stockpiling, which could be reduced without warning.
This situation creates a tense balance in the market, especially with the International Energy Agency’s latest report projecting that global oil demand growth will slow to below 1 million barrels per day in 2026. This forecast puts even more pressure on China to keep buying up the surplus barrels. A slowdown in their reserve purchases could quickly tip the market into oversupply and send prices lower.
On the supply side, we must remember the OPEC+ production cuts that were extended throughout 2024 and are still largely in effect. These cuts are the primary reason prices have not collapsed under the weight of weakening global demand. Traders should view this as a battle between managed supply from OPEC+ and the uncertain, reserve-driven demand from China.
Given this dynamic, traders should consider strategies that benefit from range-bound volatility in the coming weeks. Selling out-of-the-money puts near recent support levels, around $78 for WTI, could be viable as OPEC+ actions are likely to prevent a total price collapse. Conversely, selling calls near recent highs could also be profitable, as weak fundamental demand will likely cap any significant rally.
We should also factor in that the U.S. has been a buyer in the market, a pattern we saw through 2024 when it was refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These government purchases, both from the U.S. and China, are creating artificial support. Any signal that this government buying is slowing down should be seen as a strong bearish indicator for crude oil derivatives.
