ABN AMRO says EUR/USD direction in coming quarters will hinge on shifting Federal Reserve expectations alongside Eurozone fundamentals. Its research points to a gradual convergence in growth and inflation between the US and the euro area, with narrowing interest-rate differentials expected to provide support for the euro over time. The bank frames this as a move away from recent US “exceptionalism”, while also flagging that data surprises and changes in global risk sentiment could drive sharp short-term swings.
The baseline assumes the Fed is closer to the end of its tightening cycle than the ECB, which would underpin a higher EUR/USD path. However, the report sets out a conditional risk case: if the Fed keeps policy more restrictive for longer while the ECB moves ahead with easing plans, upside could be capped. It also lists downside scenarios including weaker Eurozone growth, renewed fragmentation concerns, or US growth staying stronger than ABN AMRO projects.
Fundamental Drivers of EUR/USD Strength
We see the EUR/USD pair trending higher in the coming weeks. The period of strong US economic outperformance appears to be moderating, bringing growth prospects closer to those in the Eurozone. This convergence should continue to lend support to the euro against the dollar.
The narrowing of interest rate differentials is a key driver for this outlook. With the Federal Reserve funds rate now at 3.50% and the ECB deposit facility rate at 2.75%, the spread is significantly tighter than the 1.5% gap seen back in 2024. As US inflation has cooled to 2.5%, compared to the Eurozone’s 2.2% HICP, markets anticipate the Fed has more room for further easing than the ECB.
Trading Strategy and Risk Management
For derivative traders, this suggests positioning for euro strength is prudent. Buying EUR/USD call options with expirations in August or September 2026 offers a way to capitalize on potential upside with a defined risk. We believe strike prices around 1.1100 could provide a favorable balance of probability and potential return.
However, we must watch for any signs that US growth is re-accelerating or that the Fed might adopt a more hawkish tone at its next meeting. Upcoming US CPI and retail sales figures will be critical to monitor for any surprises that could challenge our view. Any unexpected weakness in the Eurozone, particularly in German manufacturing PMIs, could also temporarily stall the euro’s ascent.
To manage these risks, we can consider using call spreads, such as buying a 1.1000 call and selling a 1.1200 call. This strategy would lower the initial premium cost and profit from a gradual move higher, which aligns with our baseline forecast. It offers a more conservative way to express a bullish view while acknowledging the potential for short-term volatility.
Historically, periods of policy convergence where the Fed’s easing cycle leads the ECB’s have often supported the euro. The rally in late 2020, for example, coincided with a similar narrowing of rate expectations between the two central banks. We see the current environment as echoing this fundamental pattern, suggesting a constructive path for EUR/USD.
