Insights 
VT 
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary lift on the export ban of “dual-use items” including gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the United States. This suspension will remain in effect from Sunday until 27 November 2026.
The move comes after China recently lifted additional export controls on some rare earth metals and components used in lithium batteries. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair saw a minor increase of 0.05%, trading at 0.6501.
The Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is influenced by various factors, including interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia’s rich resource exports, especially iron ore, and the Chinese economy’s health, significantly affect the AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains stable inflation by adjusting interest rates, impacting AUD’s strength. Comparatively higher interest rates can support the AUD, while lower rates have the opposite effect.
China is Australia’s largest trade partner, affecting Australian Dollar value through its economic health. Positive growth in China’s economy generally increases demand for AUD.
Iron ore, Australia’s major export, impacts AUD, with price increases boosting its value. The trade balance also influences AUD; a positive balance strengthens the currency, while a negative balance weakens it.
China’s Temporary Lift on Export Bans
From our perspective on November 10, 2025, China’s move to temporarily lift export bans on key materials is a positive signal for global trade. This de-escalation can improve risk sentiment, which tends to benefit currencies like the Australian dollar. We’re seeing this play out with the AUD/USD currently trading around the 0.6501 mark.
The health of China’s economy remains a critical factor, and recent data has been encouraging. Their Q3 GDP growth for 2025 came in at 4.8%, beating market expectations, and the latest official manufacturing PMI for October held steady at 50.6, indicating continued expansion. This stability in our largest trading partner supports demand for Australian exports and the AUD.
Iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, has also been a source of strength. Prices have been resilient, hovering near $135 a tonne, a significant increase from the lows we saw back in 2024. This price level is boosting our national income and supports a strong currency.
Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia is a major focus. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% during its meeting last week, as services inflation remains a concern. This contrasts with the US Federal Reserve’s rate of 5.25%, and this negative interest rate differential could cap the AUD’s gains against the greenback.
Australia’s trade balance continues to provide a solid foundation for the currency. The most recent data for September 2025 showed another strong surplus of over A$11 billion, driven by our commodity exports. This consistent demand from foreign buyers seeking our goods creates a natural floor for the Aussie dollar.
Considering these factors, the improved sentiment from China could push the AUD/USD higher in the coming weeks. Traders might look at options strategies that profit from a potential test of resistance near the 0.6650 level. However, the persistent interest rate gap with the United States will likely act as a headwind, limiting the potential for a sustained breakout.
