TD Securities has initiated a tactical long position in gold due to rising tensions in the Middle East. Gold is considered a low-risk safe haven in the face of possible regional instability.

The firm has set a one-month price target for gold at $3,650 per ounce. This move reflects their strategy to mitigate risks during uncertain geopolitical conditions.

Tactical Move and Short Term Positioning

This recent call reflects a tactical move grounded in geopolitical stress, with particular emphasis on immediate short-term positioning rather than a longer-term revaluation of the precious metal itself. The preset one-month horizon underlines confidence in gold’s capacity to act as a shelter when regional threats intensify. It’s not an open-ended outlook, but a narrowly timed one, aimed at capturing gains tied directly to events as they unfold in the region.

What this tells us, very clearly, is that risk aversion is climbing. Not from a broad economic deterioration, but rather from asymmetric shocks that could rattle asset classes fast. When that happens, gold frequently responds first—and predictably. The decision to go long at this juncture, and not earlier or later, suggests that the window for relative safety plays is now open, but unlikely to remain effective for too long.

Markets have already begun repricing scenarios that previously appeared too remote. You can see it not just in metals, but in volatility indexes pushing higher and yields drifting out of step with inflation-adjusted expectations. That outside pressure narrows the margin for error in directional bets.

From our perspective, the best actionable approach involves reassessing delta exposures that might be too vulnerable to geopolitical whipsaws. We’ve shifted short-term gamma closer to neutral and started to favour skew premia that lean toward downside protection without locking up too much capital. Volatility sellers have been surprisingly active, but the pricing doesn’t fully capture the tail risks priced into safe-haven demand.

Gold Forward Curve and Market Reactions

As tensions remained elevated through the past week, we’ve noticed the gold forward curve flatten out slightly. That’s telling. Traders are signalling conviction over a compressed time frame, rather than a full repricing of longer-term equilibrium. What’s priced today is not fear of a structural shift, but the explicit expectation that next month will not resemble the last.

It’s also worth noting that stop-loss levels will likely tighten. This forces leveraged positions to react more sensitively to headline risk. In markets dominated by sentiment swings, liquidity gaps widen when large hedging flows appear. We’ve already picked up slippage across options markets this week. That alone warrants a more staggered execution strategy for any fresh entries or exits.

Once the regional picture clarifies—or fades—gold’s tactical appeal could unwind faster than some think. History points to how quickly havens leak premium once headlines stabilise. Therefore, timing matters more than usual. We’ve chosen to hedge duration risk outside of precious metals entirely for this reason.

Above all, the reading here isn’t that gold is undervalued. It’s that, for now, it stands insulated. And that insulation, in a week packed with uncertainty, continues to attract capital with short patience and sharper thresholds for headline-induced swings.

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