FX option expiries for 22 September do not feature any major events, suggesting a quieter start to the week. The economic calendar for the day appears sparse, with attention shifted to the aftermath of last week’s Federal Reserve actions.
Market Focus
Market participants are focused on whether economic data will challenge their expectations. The dollar is currently stable, with EUR/USD facing resistance at 1.1900 and USD/JPY nearing its 200-day moving average at 148.56, making the latter worth monitoring in the coming days.
With a quiet economic calendar, we are focused on the follow-through from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last week. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady while signaling a “higher for longer” stance has reinforced the dollar’s strength. This places a heavy burden on upcoming economic data to challenge the market’s current outlook.
The Fed’s hawkish position is supported by recent figures, as we saw with the August 2025 Consumer Price Index coming in at 3.4%, slightly above expectations and stalling the disinflationary trend. Additionally, the labor market remains tight, with the last Non-Farm Payrolls report showing a solid gain of 210,000 jobs. These numbers give the Fed little reason to signal any pivot towards rate cuts in the near future.
For EUR/USD, the rejection of the 1.1900 level is a key technical signal for us. We see this as an opportunity to position for further dollar strength, possibly by selling call spreads with strike prices above that mark. The European Central Bank’s more cautious tone on future hikes creates a clear policy divergence that should weigh on the pair.
USD/JPY Analysis
We are also watching USD/JPY closely as it approaches its 200-day moving average of 148.56. Looking back at the price action from 2022 and 2023, we saw that the fundamental interest rate gap between the U.S. and a still-dovish Bank of Japan drove the pair higher despite intervention threats. We believe this underlying trend remains intact, making call options an attractive strategy to capture potential upside.
Given this data-dependent environment, we should expect implied volatility to remain sensitive around major economic releases, like the upcoming inflation and jobs reports. This presents opportunities to trade volatility itself, such as selling premium after the data is released and the market has digested the news. Low-cost options structures that benefit from a directional move in the dollar could be particularly effective over the next few weeks.
