Insights 
VT 
Trump is expected to introduce a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas, potentially signing the order today. This move could have substantial effects across immigration, labour markets, and business strategies.
Smaller employers and outsourcing firms might almost completely cease filing for these visas. Large tech companies could also reduce numbers, reserving visas for only the most scarce roles.
H-1B Visa Basics
The H-1B visa allows employers to hire foreign professionals in specialised fields like tech, engineering, or medicine. It requires at least a bachelor’s degree and specialised knowledge.
The US issues about 85,000 H-1B visas annually, potentially raising $8.5 billion from the fee. However, tech companies, such as Nvidia—valued at $4 trillion—could lose access to valuable workers.
The immediate move is to look at put options on IT services and consulting companies. Firms like Infosys, Wipro, and Tata Consultancy Services rely heavily on this visa category, and a $100,000 fee per person would crush their business model. We saw from filings earlier in 2025 that these companies consistently account for thousands of H-1B petitions, making them the most vulnerable to this policy change.
Investment Strategy Considerations
We should also consider buying puts on the Nasdaq 100 index through ETFs like the QQQ. While a giant like Nvidia can afford the fee, this policy creates a talent bottleneck that will slow down product development and AI research across the entire sector. A recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics just last quarter, in mid-2025, highlighted that nearly a quarter of STEM workers in key tech hubs are non-U.S. citizens, showing how deep this impact could be.
This news is a recipe for market uncertainty, so we should consider calls on the VIX, the market’s fear gauge. We saw similar spikes in volatility back during the 2017-2020 period when executive orders on immigration and trade were suddenly announced. History shows that policy shocks like this, especially when they hit a key sector like technology, cause widespread defensive trading.
Even a company as strong as Nvidia is not immune, as its high valuation is based on rapid, uninterrupted innovation. Their growth is fueled by attracting the best global talent in AI, and this policy directly threatens that pipeline. The company’s own quarterly report from mid-2025 identified competition for specialized talent as a primary operational risk, making its stock particularly sensitive to this news.
