A private survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a headline crude oil build, contrasting with expectations of a 1.8 million barrel draw. Other forecasts included a 1.0 million barrel decrease in distillates and a 0.2 million barrel fall in gasoline.

This private survey focuses on oil storage facilities and companies. An official report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released on Wednesday morning, providing more detailed data.

Oil Storage Levels And Industry Insights

The EIA report is based on information from the Department of Energy and other agencies. It includes data on total crude oil storage levels, changes from the previous week, refinery inputs and outputs, and storage levels for various crude oil grades.

The EIA report is considered more precise and complete than the API survey, offering broader insights into the oil market’s status. These reports can have different outcomes, affecting market analyses and decisions.

So far, the data reveal a mixed picture for energy markets. Where we might have expected a decline in stored crude, the survey instead indicates an increase, calling into question the assumed balance between supply and demand for the moment. Storage builds tend to suggest that either domestic output has edged up or that demand from refiners may have slackened slightly.

Distillates and gasoline both show slight declines, albeit not large enough to counterbalance the rise in crude inventories. These modest reductions could imply seasonal shifts in consumption, possibly linked to regional transport patterns or a deceleration in industrial throughput. However, we must avoid over-interpreting weekly swings without confirmation from official figures.

Refining Throughput And Market Impact

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) upcoming release carries more weight than the private survey. It draws on broader, verified government sources and provides a detailed glimpse at crude movement, refining activity, and regional storage metrics. Generally speaking, traders place more faith in the EIA figures due to their scope and reliability. Discrepancies between the two reports are not unusual, and it’s the EIA data that tends to move markets more noticeably.

Those watching the options chain or managing futures exposure should pay attention to whether Wednesday’s report confirms the build or not. If the official figures align with the API’s view, the market might respond more sharply to the perceived loosening in balances. In recent months, price action has become more sensitive to storage level changes due to narrowing spare capacity across some production sites.

Inventory builds can push premiums lower if sustained. That sort of pressure matters when structuring near-term positions. Specifically, calendar spreads may widen as the front month adjusts to reflect reduced supply tightness. We could see some length trimmed in speculative contracts if the data continue to show a build trend.

Markets also tend to digest refining throughput and utilisation rates. If refineries are operating under capacity or product yield decreases, then feedstock demand naturally eases, which weakens support for crude prices. From an analytical standpoint, tracking refinery margins in the Gulf Coast region may offer clues for any changes in product flows and crack spreads.

We’ve noted that broader indicators—such as tanker activity and crude export figures—should be read alongside the inventory data. When barrels are not leaving domestic shores as expected, they often show up in storage instead. This tends to prove more apparent in the four-week averages the EIA publishes, providing a stabilised view of the trend.

Volatility around these reports is not accidental, and bid-ask spreads tend to widen in the lead-up. We’ve seen that confirmatory data usually solidifies sentiment, whereas divergence between the API and EIA numbers creates short-term uncertainty, often triggering adjustments in hedging strategies and delta exposure.

Overall, inventory data need to be viewed in context—with positioning data, refinery throughput, export volumes, and supply changes layered alongside. The coming days will require swift recalibration if EIA figures diverge sharply from the first estimates.

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