The American Petroleum Institute (API) conducted a private survey expecting crude oil stocks to decrease by 0.6 million barrels, distillates to increase by 0.8 million barrels, and gasoline stocks to fall by 0.4 million barrels. This data provides insights into oil storage facilities and companies ahead of the official government data release.
The official report, due on Wednesday morning US time, comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and provides a more detailed analysis. The API report gives information on total crude oil storage levels and weekly variations, while the EIA includes data from the Department of Energy and other agencies. The EIA also covers inputs and outputs from refineries and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, offering a comprehensive view of the oil market’s status.
Market Reactions
We are seeing the private API survey data come in ahead of the official government numbers tomorrow. This often creates a short burst of activity, but we know the official EIA report is what truly matters. Any significant difference between the two reports will likely cause a sharp price correction on Wednesday morning.
Given the potential for a mismatch between the two reports, traders might consider options strategies to play the expected price swing. With the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) recently ticking up to around 35, it shows the market is already braced for a surprise in tomorrow’s EIA data. This suggests that hedging against a sharp move, rather than betting on a direction, could be a prudent short-term play.
Looking beyond this week’s numbers, we are at the tail end of the summer driving season. US gasoline demand in July 2025 averaged a soft 9.1 million barrels per day, slightly under projections and below the 9.3 million bpd we saw at this time in 2024. This signals a potential headwind for crude prices as we move into the autumn.
Supply Concerns
The major wildcard for supply in the coming weeks is the Atlantic hurricane season, which is now entering its peak period. Any storm entering the Gulf of Mexico could threaten a significant portion of the nearly 1.9 million barrels of daily offshore production. This risk of supply disruption is a key reason we have seen prices find a floor despite mixed demand signals.
On the global stage, we are closely watching OPEC+ policy after their decision in June 2025 to maintain current output levels. This puts more weight on US inventory reports as a primary gauge of global demand health. Any signs of weakening consumption in these official figures could give bears more confidence in the coming weeks.
