Insights 
VT 
Shares of Nvidia have fallen below a major support trendline first established in April 2025. Historically, the stock price has rebounded from this trendline, but its current break raises concerns.
A close below the trendline remains unconfirmed as of now. Should it confirm, projections suggest a potential drop to $150 per share, though it could still recover to $184 if it re-establishes support.
Nvidia Current Trading Influences
Today, Nvidia is trading higher, influenced by ASML’s earnings announcement. The stock is currently at $184, aligning with the trendline, but its closing position will be telling.
Technical traders are observing if it remains above $184, which would be reassuring, or if it closes below $180, indicating a potential breakdown.
Separately, the International Monetary Fund’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook revised its global growth forecast slightly upward. However, it signals that the general pace of growth continues to be sluggish.
Meanwhile, Lido DAO has reclaimed support above $1.00 as it continues its recovery. The recent launch of Lido V3’s final testnet is intended to upgrade its main protocol’s core contracts.
Broader Economic Picture And Strategy
With Nvidia breaking a critical support trendline dating back to April 2025, we are now on high alert. The stock’s current bounce to $184 following ASML earnings is the first major test of this former support level, which may now act as resistance. Derivative traders should view this as a pivotal moment where the next few closes will dictate medium-term direction.
The broader economic picture from the IMF’s October 2025 outlook suggests subdued global growth, which puts pressure on high-valuation stocks. With Nvidia still trading at over 60 times forward earnings, it remains highly sensitive to shifts in market sentiment and macroeconomic headwinds. This backdrop makes the technical breakdown more significant than if it had occurred in a booming economy.
For traders anticipating a confirmation of the breakdown with a close below $180, buying put options is a direct strategy. We are watching the November and December 2025 expiration cycles, specifically looking at the $170 and $160 strike puts. A decisive failure at the $184 level would make the $150 price target increasingly likely.
We have seen this pattern before in market leaders. Looking back, the breakdown of Meta’s long-term trendline in early 2022 preceded a significant decline, showing how technical weakness in a mega-cap stock can signal a major repricing. This historical precedent suggests we should take the current warning signs in Nvidia seriously.
Conversely, if Nvidia manages a strong close back above the $184 trendline, it would signal a “fake-out” and could trap bearish traders. In this scenario, selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads with a floor around the $175 level could be an effective way to collect premium. Alternatively, nimble traders could consider buying short-dated call options to play a potential squeeze higher.
Recent industry data adds to our caution, as a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association last week showed that global data center chip orders for the third quarter of 2025 grew just 2% sequentially, missing expectations of 5%. This slowing growth gives fundamental weight to the technical crack in the stock’s chart. Given this uncertainty, implied volatility on Nvidia options is rising, making straddles a viable strategy for those who expect a large price swing but are unsure of the direction.
