On Monday, 13th October 2025, the Invesco QQQ ETF attempted to recover towards $603 after a gap up from the $590s. However, the current premarket suggests a gap down towards $593.24–$597.23, returning to previous support.

The technical indicators show a hidden bullish divergence, suggesting potential upward momentum. Meanwhile, macro-economic conditions remain precarious with hints of a 100% tariff on China and an anticipated speech from Powell potentially affecting market sentiment.

Structural Positioning of QQQ

Structurally, QQQ is positioned between levels, with $603.85 as immediate resistance and $593.24–$597.23 as a support range below. Losing the support at $589.05 could lead to a slide towards $580–$582, risking a trend shift with targets at $555–$560, although this is not the primary expectation.

Technically, the outlook retains a slight bullish bias, though fundamental factors necessitate caution. A possible recovery in the market could trap short positions, depending on Powell’s upcoming statements and how they influence yields and tech sentiment.

As we open the markets on Tuesday, October 14, 2025, the QQQ is set to gap down toward the $593 support level, erasing yesterday’s optimism. This move creates significant uncertainty, pitting a neutral-to-bullish technical chart against a shaky macroeconomic backdrop. We must therefore be prepared for sharp moves in either direction in the coming weeks.

Impact of Global Tariffs and Fed Policy

The threat of a 100% tariff on China is not something we can ignore, as it would severely impact the tech sector’s supply chains and revenue. We saw how markets reacted to similar threats back in the 2018-2019 period, with sudden and deep pullbacks in tech stocks. Recent trade data already shows a slight slowdown in semiconductor exports, making this risk feel more immediate.

All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s speech this week, which introduces another layer of risk. The latest inflation report for September 2025 showed core inflation holding stubbornly above 3%, making the Fed’s path less certain. A hawkish hint could easily send the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.0%, putting immediate pressure on tech valuations.

For traders anticipating a breakdown, a clean break below the $593 support gap would be a signal to consider buying put options. If the next key level at $589.05 also fails, it would strengthen the case for a slide towards the low $580s. This provides a clear, risk-defined entry for a bearish position.

Conversely, a strong defense of the $593 support level could present a bear trap, fueled by the hidden bullish divergence on the chart. Traders could play this scenario by buying short-dated call options if the price action shows a firm rebound from this morning’s lows. A move back above the $603 resistance would confirm that the uptrend is still intact.

Given the high event risk, implied volatility is rising, making options more expensive. This situation may favor strategies that sell premium, such as setting up an iron condor with strikes below $580 and above $605. This strategy would profit if QQQ remains range-bound while we await clarity from both the Fed and trade negotiations.

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