The NASDAQ 100 index is anticipated to reach around 26700, with a gap noted as the previous target was missed by 2%. For a higher confidence level that a correction is underway, a weekly close below 24000 is required, reflecting a 75% chance.
The index reached 23854 and closed the week at 24239, trading now around 25575. The short-term warning levels for the index include 25443, 25158, 24542, 24214, and 23854. Daily closes below these levels increase the probability, by 20%, that the uptrend from November 21 is complete.
Current Market Structure
Current analysis indicates an impulsive move from the November 21 low, viewed on a 65-minute chart with five-wave advances and three-wave corrections. The expected advancement includes the orange W-3 peaking around 26635, followed by W-4 and then W-5, potentially reaching close to 26700.
The technical indicators demonstrate a weakening downside strength, suggesting a corrective phase poised to resolve upwards. This advice is coupled with strategic levels for monitoring potential stops, which should rise as the trend progresses.
Based on the current market structure, it appears the NASDAQ 100 is in the final leg of a rally targeting the 26,700 level. The index successfully tested a key support zone around 23,854 on November 21, 2025, and has since moved decisively higher. This recent price action strengthens our view that the primary trend remains upward for the coming weeks.
Economic Data Supports Bullish Outlook
This bullish technical outlook is reinforced by the latest economic data. The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a year-over-year increase of just 2.1%, has calmed fears of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. This environment of stable rates and moderating inflation is historically favorable for growth-oriented tech stocks that dominate the NASDAQ 100.
For traders, this suggests a strategy focused on bullish positions, such as buying call options or call debit spreads. With the index currently near 25,575, options with strike prices in the 26,000 to 26,500 range expiring in late December 2025 or January 2026 could capture the expected final push. This allows for participation in the upside while defining risk.
We anticipate a potential minor pullback toward the 25,300 level, which could serve as a low-risk entry point for those not yet positioned. This type of brief dip before a final peak is a common pattern we have seen in past bull market cycles, including the run-up during 2023. Patience may provide a more favorable entry price before the index moves toward its ultimate target.
Managing risk is critical, as this is viewed as a final wave. Traders should use the identified warning levels, such as 25,443 and 25,158, as key signals for stop-losses or to begin taking profits. A daily close below these levels would significantly increase the probability that the uptrend has concluded, making it prudent to reduce long exposure.
