Insights 
VT 
New Zealand’s electronic card retail sales for September decreased by 0.5%, following a rise of 0.7% in the previous month. This decline indicates a reduction in consumer spending compared to the August data.
The US Dollar Index remained stable above 99.00 amidst hopes for a resolution in US-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar maintained its position in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes release.
China US Trade Concerns
China’s Commerce Ministry has called on the US to amend its recent practices. The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1021, slightly up from the previous 7.1007.
Silver prices have increased, reaching an all-time high of above $52.50. This rise is driven by a deepening short squeeze.
The EUR/USD has been trading lower, approaching 1.1550, impacted by overall US Dollar strength. Similarly, the GBP/USD fell by 0.13% as the US Dollar recovered.
Gold continues to surge, reaching new heights amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Dogecoin has shown recovery signs after a recent market crash.
Market Rebound
The US stock markets rebounded on Monday after tensions eased, helping to restore market normalcy. Pi Network is in recovery mode but faces potential supply pressure due to shifts in core team wallets.
The recent slip in New Zealand’s electronic card sales to -0.5% for September confirms a worrying trend we’ve been tracking. This isn’t a one-off event, as it follows the official 0.5% fall in total retail sales volume that Stats NZ reported for the June 2024 quarter. It appears the sustained high official cash rate from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is finally hitting consumer spending hard.
For derivative traders, this points toward a clear strategy of buying put options on the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. With the NZD/USD currently hovering near 0.5800, we see potential for a further slide toward the lows seen back in late 2022. This weakness in consumer data gives us little reason to expect a near-term rebound for the kiwi.
This isn’t just a New Zealand story; it’s part of a broader flight to safety we’re seeing across markets. Gold and silver are hitting fresh all-time highs, with silver now pushing past $52.50 an ounce, signaling deep-seated economic anxiety. A CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) holding firm above 20 further suggests that market participants are hedging against uncertainty for the weeks ahead.
We should therefore be positioning for this fear to continue, favoring long call options on precious metals. The powerful short squeeze in silver and the unabated buying in gold create strong upward momentum. Any dips should be seen as opportunities to add to these bullish positions, as geopolitical and economic concerns are unlikely to fade quickly.
