Trump recently announced a deal concerning TikTok, which is expected to be finalised within 30 to 45 days. This arrangement involves the US version of TikTok but keeps 20% ownership with Beijing.
Oracle is mentioned as a participant, providing cloud services for the US operations. The official announcement may coincide with the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping.
With the Trump-Xi meeting scheduled for this Friday, the market is bracing for volatility. Any hint that this TikTok deal might falter could cause the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), currently hovering near 17, to surge above 25, a level we haven’t seen since the trade disputes last spring. We should be considering short-term put options on the QQQ ETF to hedge against a negative surprise from the meeting.
Oracle is the most direct way to trade this news, and its options market is already pricing in a significant move. We saw this exact scenario play out during the original negotiations back in 2020, when Oracle’s implied volatility spiked by over 40% in the weeks surrounding the announcement. A long straddle using October 2025 options allows us to profit from a large price swing in either direction once the deal’s final terms are revealed.
We must also watch social media competitors like Meta and Snap, who would benefit immensely if this deal collapses. When a US ban on TikTok was first seriously threatened in August 2020, Snap Inc.’s stock jumped almost 9% in a single day as investors anticipated a user migration. Buying cheap, out-of-the-money call options on these names for November expiration is a high-reward bet on the deal failing.
This deal is fundamentally a major play for Oracle’s cloud business, which has struggled to gain ground on its larger rivals. Current data shows Oracle Cloud Infrastructure holds just under 8% of the market, compared to over 30% for Amazon Web Services. Securing the massive US TikTok account would be a huge boost to its credibility and revenue, likely justifying a bullish stance on ORCL call options if the deal is confirmed.
