Insights 
VT 
Trend Analysis
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), managed by Sprott Asset Management, offers exposure to physical silver bullion. The fund, backed by allocated silver bars, reached a new all-time high, with the weekly chart showing a wave (II) low at 6.17 on August 29, 2022.
Wave I increased to 11.77, followed by a wave II correction bottoming at 9.61. Wave III is currently progressing, with wave (1) peaking at 11.75, wave (2) retracing to 9.97, and wave (3) extending to 18.15. A wave (4) correction took the price to 15.06, and wave (5) is expected to complete wave ((1)) of III.
After wave ((1)) finishes, a wave ((2)) correction is anticipated, retracing the cycle starting from the December 16, 2024 low. Provided the 6.17 pivot holds, the trend remains bullish, with pullbacks presenting buying opportunities in the familiar 3, 7, or 11 swing sequences.
Caution is advised as the information involves risks and market uncertainties. The forecast and opinions do not represent guidance to buy or sell assets and are not guaranteed to be error-free or currently accurate. Thorough research is recommended before any investment decision.
Based on the current wave structure, we appear to be in the final stages of a strong upward push that began back in late 2024. The Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) has already cleared its prior peak of $18.15, suggesting this final wave is well underway. Derivative traders should be cautious about adding aggressive new long positions right now, as this rally could be nearing a short-term exhaustion point.
Market Considerations
For the immediate coming weeks, traders holding long call options or futures could consider taking partial profits as this move extends. Those looking to position for the next move might start planning for the corrective pullback, which is expected to follow this peak. This could involve strategies like buying puts or establishing bearish spreads once we see signs that this final upward wave has topped out.
Fundamentally, this strength in silver is supported by strong underlying demand. Reports from The Silver Institute earlier this year showed industrial demand remains robust, particularly from the solar and 5G sectors, which have consumed over 650 million ounces in 2025. This persistent demand provides a solid floor for prices and gives us confidence in the larger bullish trend.
Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment continues to be favorable for hard assets like silver. With the Federal Reserve signaling a more dovish stance and recent consumer price index (CPI) figures from November showing inflation moderating slower than expected, the U.S. dollar has remained under pressure. The CME FedWatch Tool is currently pricing in a high probability of a rate cut by the second quarter of 2026, which further supports the case for non-yielding assets.
Once the anticipated correction begins, traders should view any significant dip as a buying opportunity for the longer term. The analysis suggests this pullback will retrace the gains since the December 16, 2024 low, offering a more favorable entry point for the next major wave up. The key is to remain patient and wait for this corrective phase to present itself before re-establishing bullish positions.
The long-term outlook remains firmly positive as long as the pivotal low of $6.17 from August 2022 holds. We have seen a structural supply deficit in the physical silver market for several years now, a trend that mining industry reports confirm has continued through 2025. This imbalance suggests that pullbacks are likely to be well-supported, reinforcing the strategy of buying on dips.
