{"id":69353,"date":"2026-10-12T01:43:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T01:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/openai-revenue-estimate-confusion-jolts-ai-shares-as-capex-burden-and-yields-bite\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T01:43:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T01:43:50","slug":"openai-revenue-estimate-confusion-jolts-ai-shares-as-capex-burden-and-yields-bite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/openai-revenue-estimate-confusion-jolts-ai-shares-as-capex-burden-and-yields-bite\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ud508AI \ub9e4\ucd9c \ucd94\uc815\uce58 \ud63c\uc120\uc5d0 AI \uad00\ub828\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\u2026CAPEX \ubd80\ub2f4\u00b7\uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc555\ubc15 \uacb9\uccd0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10\uc6d4 8\uc77c \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub294 \uc624\ud508AI\uc758 \uc5f0\ud658\uc0b0 \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc774 \uc57d 500\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c, \uc55e\uc11c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub358 700\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ucd94\uc815\uce58\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 200\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub0ae\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ucd94\uc815 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \ub2ec\ub790\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80\ub294 \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\ub4dc \ud30c\ud2b8\ub108\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c \ud310\ub9e4\ub97c \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ubc18\uba74, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \ud30c\ud2b8\ub108 \ubaab\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud588\ub2e4. \ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc624\ud508AI\uac00 \uae30\uc5c5 \uace0\uac1d\uc744 \ub3d9\ub825\uc73c\ub85c 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\ud658\uc0b0 \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc774 \ucd5c\uc18c 700\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ub300\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud574\ub2f9 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc740 \ub2f9\uc77c AI \uad00\ub828 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc744 \ud754\ub4e4\uc5c8\uace0, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc774 1.3% \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc5d4\ube44\ub514\uc544\ub294 2.9% \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc73c\uba70 AMD\ub294 3.9% \ubc00\ub838\uace0 \uc624\ub77c\ud074\uc740 5.5% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc0ac\ud0dc\ub294 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c AI \ud22c\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \uc774\ub97c \ub530\ub77c\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc9d1\uc911\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\uc790\ubcf8\uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\ub2e4. \ubc14\ud074\ub808\uc774\uc988\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub85c\uc18c\ud504\ud2b8, \uc54c\ud30c\ubcb3, \uc544\ub9c8\uc874, \uba54\ud0c0\ub294 2026\ub144 2\ubd84\uae30 \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790(capex)\uc5d0 \ud569\uc0b0 1,650\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\ucd9c\ud588\ub294\ub370, 1\ub144 \uc804 880\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c \uae09\uc99d\ud55c \uc218\uce58\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\ub4e4 \uadf8\ub8f9\uc774 \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud55c \ud569\uc0b0 \uc789\uc5ec\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984(FCF)\uc740 \uc57d 67\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ed(market breadth)\uc740 \uc57d\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc77c\uac00\uc911 S&#038;P 500 ETF\ub294 10\uc6d4 8\uc77c 0.6% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 20\uc77c \uc9c0\uc218\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0(20D-EMA) \ubc34\ub4dc(\ud45c\uc900\ud3b8\ucc28 1\ubc30) \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc0c1\ub2e8 \uae30\uc900\uc810\uc740 214~216, \ud558\ub2e8\uc740 207\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 S&#038;P 500\uc740 7,950~8,000\uc744 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubb18\uc0ac\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \uc624\ud508AI \ub9e4\ucd9c \uc218\uce58 \ud63c\uc120\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ud5e4\uccd0 \ub098\uac00\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uc9c0\ubc30\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc874\uc911\ud558\ub418 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. S&#038;P 500\uc740 \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uba70, \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ubd88 \ud50c\ub798\uadf8(bull flag) \ud328\ud134\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 8,000\uc120 \ub3cc\ud30c\ub97c \uaca8\ub0e5\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \ud3ec\ucc29\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \uacc4\uc57d\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub610\ub294 \uac15\uc138 \ubc84\ud2f0\uceec \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bullish vertical spreads)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \ub3d9\uc77c\uac00\uc911 S&#038;P 500 \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 20\uc77c \uc9c0\uc218\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uad34\ub9ac\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ud6c4\ud589 \uc131\uacfc\ub294 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 AI \ub300\ud615\uc8fc\ub97c \ub530\ub77c\uac00\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529(pair-trading) \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ud070 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\ub294 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub3d9\uc77c\uac00\uc911 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\ub294 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574, 207\uc120 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc555\ub825\uacfc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac<\/h3>\n\n<p>\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc694\uc778\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uc758\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. 10\uc6d4 \ucd08 \ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 4.0%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uba70 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574, \uc77c\ubc18 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec 10\uc6d4 \uc911\uc21c \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\ub294 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc2dc\uc98c\uc740, \ucd08\ubc18\uc5d0 \uc9d1\ud589\ub41c 1,650\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ucd08\ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220\uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ub2f9\uc131\uc744 \uc785\uc99d\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \u2018\ubc14\uc774\ub108\ub9ac \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\u2019(\uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ud2b9\uc815 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \uac08\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8)\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574, \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc758 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddles) \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 \ub354 \uae4a\uc740 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294\ub2e4\uba74, \uc7a5\uae30\uc801 \ubc29\uc5b4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 100\uc8fc \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ub3d9\uc77c\uac00\uc911 \uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc740 214~216 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc555\ub825\uc758 \ubcbd\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub52a\ud790 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \uc785\uc99d\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218(buy the dips)\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub418 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub098\uba38\uc9c0 \uc601\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801\uc778 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc624\ud508AI \ub9e4\ucd9c \ucd94\uc815 \ud63c\uc120(500\uc5b5 vs 700\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc774 AI\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 -1.3% \ucd09\ubc1c. \ube45\ud14c\ud06c CAPEX 1,650\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 FCF 67\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec. \uac15\uc138\uc7a5 \uc874\uc911\ud558\ub418 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ud398\uc5b4\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\ub85c \ub300\uc751.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69352,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\uc624\ud508AI \ub9e4\ucd9c \ucd94\uc815 \ud63c\uc120(500\uc5b5 vs 700\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc774 AI\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 -1.3% \ucd09\ubc1c. \ube45\ud14c\ud06c CAPEX 1,650\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 FCF 67\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec. \uac15\uc138\uc7a5 \uc874\uc911\ud558\ub418 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ud398\uc5b4\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\ub85c \ub300\uc751.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" 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1,650\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 FCF 67\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec. \uac15\uc138\uc7a5 \uc874\uc911\ud558\ub418 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ud398\uc5b4\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\ub85c \ub300\uc751.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/openai-revenue-estimate-confusion-jolts-ai-shares-as-capex-burden-and-yields-bite\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-12T01:43:50+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-12T01:43:50+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/vtmarketsglobal\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@vtmarketsglobal\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\uc624\ud508AI \ub9e4\ucd9c \ucd94\uc815\uce58 \ud63c\uc120\uc5d0 AI \uad00\ub828\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\u2026CAPEX 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