{"id":69268,"date":"2026-10-08T02:44:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T02:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/backtest-flags-softer-sp-500-returns-near-highs-as-breadth-weakens-and-rates-volatility-rises\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T02:44:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T02:44:11","slug":"backtest-flags-softer-sp-500-returns-near-highs-as-breadth-weakens-and-rates-volatility-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/backtest-flags-softer-sp-500-returns-near-highs-as-breadth-weakens-and-rates-volatility-rises\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uacb0\uacfc, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ed\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uba74\uc11c S&#038;P 500\uc774 \uace0\uc810 \uc778\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ed(\ube0c\ub808\ub4dc\uc2a4), \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc5ec\uac74\uc744 \uacb0\ud569\ud55c \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ubbf8 \uc99d\uc2dc\uac00 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uc788\uc744 \ub54c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud06c\ub9ac\ub2dd \uc870\uac74\uc740 S&#038;P500 \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \ub300\ube44 5% \uc774\ub0b4\uc5d0 \uc704\uce58\ud558\uace0, MOVE \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 52\uc8fc \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc758 \ucd5c\uc18c 80% \uc218\uc900\uc774\uba70, HYG-\ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc9c0\uc218 \ube44\uc728\uc774 50\uc77c \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \ud558\ud68c\ud558\uace0, NYSE \uc21c(\u7d14) \uc2e0\uace0\uac00\uac00 0 \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc778 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 120\uc77c \ub3d9\uc548 S&#038;P500\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0 0.5% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uadf8\uccd0, \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \u2018\uace0\uc810 \uadfc\uc811\u2019 \uad6c\uac04 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 4.5%\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \uc2e0\ud638 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c \ube44\uc728\ub3c4 54%\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1(75%) \ub300\ube44 \ub0ae\uc558\ub2e4. \ub099\ud3ed\uc740 \ub354 \ucef8\ub2e4. 10% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c \ube44\uc728\uc740 42%\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1(22%) \ub300\ube44 \ub192\uc558\uace0, 5% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\uc740 54%\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1(38%)\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 2\/3\/5\/10% \uc774\ub0b4, MOVE 70\/80\/90%, \uc21c \uc2e0\uace0\uac00 0\/-50\/-100 \ubbf8\ub9cc \ub4f1 \uc778\uc811\ud55c \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130 \uc870\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4(\uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ucd5c\uc18c 5\ud68c \uc774\uc0c1\uc77c \ub54c) 120\uc77c \uc131\uacfc\uac00 2%~10%\uc758 \uc5b8\ub354\ud37c\ud3fc\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \uad70\uc9d1\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2007\ub144\uc740 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \uc774\uc804, 2015\ub144\uc740 2015~16\ub144 \uc870\uc815 \uc774\uc804, 2021\ub144\uc740 2022\ub144 \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uac01\uac01 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\uc73c\uba70, 2019\ub144\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 2020\ub144 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc774\uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \u2018\uc624\uacbd\ubcf4\u2019\ub85c \ud310\uba85\ub410\ub2e4. 20\uc77c \ub77d\uc544\uc6c3(lockout) \uaddc\uce59\uc73c\ub85c 60\uc77c\u00b7120\uc77c \uc708\ub3c4 \ub0b4 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc911\ubcf5\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \ud3b8\uc73c\ub85c \ubb18\uc0ac\ub410\ub294\ub370, \uc21c \uc2e0\uace0\uac00 10\uc77c \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 -108\ub85c \uacfc\uac70 \uc2e0\ud638\uc77c\uc758 92%\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub3c4 \ub354 \ub098\uc05c \uc218\uc900\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. MOVE\ub294 \uc5f0\uc911 \uace0\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc2e0\ud638 \uad6c\uac04\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc644\ub9cc\ud588\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec(EURUSD)\ub294 1.1270\/20 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ud5d8(retest)\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\uace0, \uc774\uc804 \ub808\ubca8\uc740 1.1270\/1.1320, \uace0\uc810\uc740 1.1277\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871(\ub9e4\uc218)\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub418\uba70 EURUSD\uc640 EURCHF\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ud06c\ub418 \ud558\ubc29 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. \ud504\ub791\uc2a4 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\ud654\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc2e0\uc800\uc810\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud560 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc544\uc9c1 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>Equity Market Signal Clusters And Drawdowns<\/h3>\n\n<p>\uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \uad70\uc9d1\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2007\ub144\uc740 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \uc774\uc804, 2015\ub144\uc740 2015~16\ub144 \uc870\uc815 \uc774\uc804, 2021\ub144\uc740 2022\ub144 \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uac01\uac01 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\uc73c\uba70, 2019\ub144\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 2020\ub144 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc774\uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \u2018\uc624\uacbd\ubcf4\u2019\ub85c \ud310\uba85\ub410\ub2e4. 20\uc77c \ub77d\uc544\uc6c3(lockout) \uaddc\uce59\uc73c\ub85c 60\uc77c\u00b7120\uc77c \uc708\ub3c4 \ub0b4 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc911\ubcf5\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \ud3b8\uc73c\ub85c \ubb18\uc0ac\ub410\ub294\ub370, \uc21c \uc2e0\uace0\uac00 10\uc77c \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 -108\ub85c \uacfc\uac70 \uc2e0\ud638\uc77c\uc758 92%\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub3c4 \ub354 \ub098\uc05c \uc218\uc900\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. MOVE\ub294 \uc5f0\uc911 \uace0\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc2e0\ud638 \uad6c\uac04\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc644\ub9cc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>European FX And Spreads Context<\/h3>\n\n<p>\ubcc4\ub3c4\ub85c, EURUSD\ub294 1.1270\/20 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ud5d8\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud574\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\uc804 \ub808\ubca8\uc740 1.1270\/1.1320, \uace0\uc810\uc740 1.1277\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4. \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871(USD \ub9e4\uc218)\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub418\uba74\uc11c, EURUSD\uc640 EURCHF\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc7a5\uc138 \uc18d \ud558\ubc29 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. \ud504\ub791\uc2a4 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\ud654\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc800\uc810 \ud615\uc131\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud560 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc544\uc9c1 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ub098\uc654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018\uace0\uc810 \uacbd\ubcf4\u2019 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654? \ube0c\ub808\ub4dc\uc2a4\u00b7MOVE\u00b7\uc2e0\uc6a9\uc545\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638 \ub54c S&#038;P500 120\uc77c \ud3c9\uade0 0.5%\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1(4.5%) \ud558\ud68c, 10% \uae09\ub77d\ud655\ub960 42%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uc720\ub85c \ud558\ubc29.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69267,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u2018\uace0\uc810 \uacbd\ubcf4\u2019 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654? \ube0c\ub808\ub4dc\uc2a4\u00b7MOVE\u00b7\uc2e0\uc6a9\uc545\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638 \ub54c S&amp;P500 120\uc77c \ud3c9\uade0 0.5%\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1(4.5%) \ud558\ud68c, 10% \uae09\ub77d\ud655\ub960 42%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uc720\ub85c \ud558\ubc29.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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\ud655\ub300\ub418\uba74\uc11c S&amp;P 500\uc774 \uace0\uc810 \uc778\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098 - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u2018\uace0\uc810 \uacbd\ubcf4\u2019 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654? \ube0c\ub808\ub4dc\uc2a4\u00b7MOVE\u00b7\uc2e0\uc6a9\uc545\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638 \ub54c S&amp;P500 120\uc77c \ud3c9\uade0 0.5%\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1(4.5%) \ud558\ud68c, 10% \uae09\ub77d\ud655\ub960 42%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uc720\ub85c \ud558\ubc29.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@vtmarketsglobal\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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