{"id":69212,"date":"2026-10-07T02:40:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T02:40:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/weak-us-payrolls-dent-october-fed-hike-odds-shifting-focus-to-september-cpi-and-dollar-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T02:40:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T02:40:26","slug":"weak-us-payrolls-dent-october-fed-hike-odds-shifting-focus-to-september-cpi-and-dollar-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/weak-us-payrolls-dent-october-fed-hike-odds-shifting-focus-to-september-cpi-and-dollar-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c \ubd80\uc9c4\uc5d0 10\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc57d\ud654\u20269\uc6d4 CPI\uc640 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uad00\uc2ec \uc774\ub3d9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 9\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud558\uace0 \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub3c4 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc2dd\uc5c8\uace0 10\uc6d4 14\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc608\uc815\uc778 9\uc6d4 CPI\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc62e\uaca8\uac14\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 8\uc6d4 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\uace0\uc6a9\uc758 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \uc783\uc5b4\uac00\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 10\uc6d4 FOMC \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uae30\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8 WIRP\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 10\uc6d4 5\uc77c \uae30\uc900 10\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uc554\uc2dc \ud655\ub960\uc740 20% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc838, 9\uc6d4 25\uc77c\uc758 64%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 11\uc6d4 3\uc77c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70\uc640\uc758 \uc2dc\ucc28\uac00 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub54c 10\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uae34\ucd95(\ubc31\ud22c\ubc31 \uc778\uc0c1) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ubc30\uc81c\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc740 2\ud68c(2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 1\ud68c, 2027\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 1\ud68c)\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4 2027\ub144 \ub098\uba38\uc9c0 \uae30\uac04\uc740 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\ub2e8\uae30 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\n<p>\uc608\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc11\ub3c8 9\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\uafd4\ub193\uc558\ub2e4. 10\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 64%\uc5d0\uc11c 20% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\ub77d\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871 \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\ub97c \ucd95\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\uac70\ub098, \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138(\ub7a0\ub9ac) \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub300\ube44 \ubcf4\uc0c1(risk-reward) \uad6c\ub3c4\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\uc815\ub418\uace0, \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc548\ub3c4 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4. \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uac70\uc2dc\ud658\uacbd \ubcc0\ud654 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \ub418\uc9da\uc5b4\ubcf4\uba74, \uc8fc\uc694 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub454 \uc218\uc77c \ub3d9\uc548 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \ubca0\ud305 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uc81c\uc548\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c \uc77c\uc815\uacfc \uc911\uc7a5\uae30 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n\n<p>\uc5f0\ucc29\ub959(soft landing) \uc11c\uc0ac\ub97c \uac00\ub2a0\ud560 \ucd5c\uc885 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ub300\ub294 10\uc6d4 14\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 9\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI)\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc57d \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uc778 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.4%\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc \uacbd\uc6b0, 10\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ud55c\uce35 \uad73\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uadf8\ub9b0\ubc31)\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uac00\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \ub2e4\uac00\uc62c\uc218\ub85d \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc911\uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 12\uc6d4\uacfc 2027\ub144 \ucd08 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \ucd94\uc138 \uc804\ud658\uc774\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uc870\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uaca8\uc6b8\ucca0 \uc815\ucc45\ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc911\uc7a5\uae30 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138(\ubd88\ub9ac\uc2dc) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ucda9\uaca9 9\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc5d0 10\uc6d4 Fed \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 64%\u219220% \ubbf8\ub9cc \uae09\ub77d, \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871 \ucd95\uc18c\u00b7\ub7a0\ub9ac \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uad8c\uace0. \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 10\/14 CPI\ub85c, \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \ud6c4 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc7ac\uae34\ucd95 \uac00\ub2a5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ucda9\uaca9 9\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc5d0 10\uc6d4 Fed \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 64%\u219220% \ubbf8\ub9cc \uae09\ub77d, \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871 \ucd95\uc18c\u00b7\ub7a0\ub9ac \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uad8c\uace0. \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 10\/14 CPI\ub85c, \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \ud6c4 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc7ac\uae34\ucd95 \uac00\ub2a5.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link 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