{"id":68934,"date":"2026-09-28T01:19:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:19:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/trump-xi-timetable-leaves-markets-juggling-january-trade-cliff-oil-chokepoint-risks-and-tech-controls\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T01:19:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:19:52","slug":"trump-xi-timetable-leaves-markets-juggling-january-trade-cliff-oil-chokepoint-risks-and-tech-controls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/trump-xi-timetable-leaves-markets-juggling-january-trade-cliff-oil-chokepoint-risks-and-tech-controls\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504-\uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551 \uc77c\uc815, 1\uc6d4 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc808\ubcbd\u00b7\uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1 \uc694\ucda9\uc9c0 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u00b7\uae30\uc220 \ud1b5\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \u2018\uc800\uc6b8\uc9c8\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\u2013\uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551 \uc815\uc0c1\ud68c\ub2f4\uc740 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801 \ud569\uc758\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc77c\uc815\ud45c\ub97c \ub0b4\ub193\ub294 \ub370 \uadf8\ucce4\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubb34\uc5ed\u00b7\uc11d\uc720\u00b7\uae30\uc220\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc138 \uac1c\uc758 \ubcc4\ub3c4 \uc2dc\ud55c\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ucf67 \ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8 \ubbf8 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00\uc740 9\uc6d4 23\uc77c(\uc218) \ubd80\uc0b0 \ubb34\uc5ed \ud734\uc804\uc774 \ub2f9\ucd08 2026\ub144 11\uc6d4 10\uc77c \ub9cc\ub8cc\uc5d0\uc11c 2027\ub144 1\uc6d4 10\uc77c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc7a5\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uad00\uc138\ub294 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 \ud76c\ud1a0\ub958 \ud750\ub984\ub3c4 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \uadf8 \ubc16\uc5d0 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub294 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ubb34\uc5ed \u2018\ubcf4\ub4dc\u2019, AI \uc0ac\uace0 \uacbd\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uce21 \uc81c\uc548, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud310\ub2e4 \ub450 \ub9c8\ub9ac \uc815\ub3c4\uac00 \ub098\uc654\uc744 \ubfd0, \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\ub098 \ud76c\ud1a0\ub958\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud55c \uacf5\uac1c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub294 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uace0 \ubc31\uc545\uad00\uc740 \ube44\uacf5\uac1c \ud68c\ub2f4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad6c\uccb4\uc801 \uc124\uba85\ub3c4 \ub0b4\ub193\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uac70\uc2dc \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc9c0\ubc30\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc57d \ub450 \ub2ec \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uace0, \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2007\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 10\ub144\ubb3c\uc740 5%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \ubbf8\u2013\uc774\ub780 \uad00\uacc4 \uc9c4\uc804\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub099\uad00\uc774 \ubd80\uac01\ub410\ub2e4\uac00 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 105\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \ud658\uc728 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc704\uc548\ud654\uac00 3\ub144 \ubc18 \ub9cc\uc758 \uace0\uc810\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4\uac00, \uc911\uad6d\uc778\ubbfc\uc740\ud589(PBoC)\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud55c \uace0\uc2dc\ud658\uc728(\uc911\uac04\uac12)\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc790 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2f9 6.72\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ubc00\ub838\ub2e4. \ubb34\uc5ed \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc778\uc13c\ud2f0\ube0c \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uc758 8\uc6d4 \ubb34\uc5ed\ud751\uc790\ub294 1,191\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc600\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300\uc911 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc801\uc790\ub294 2018\ub144 4,180\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\ub144 2,030\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c\ub410\ub2e4. \uc11d\uc720 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988\uc640 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc785\uc740 4\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc57d 1,320\ub9cc\ubc30\ub7f4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 820\ub9cc\ubc30\ub7f4\ub85c 38% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc57d 10\uc5b5\ubc30\ub7f4 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub3c4 \ubcd1\ud589\ub410\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc640 \ub300\ub9cc \uc774\uc288\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uad6d\uc740 \ub17c\uc758\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 140\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb34\uae30 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub41c \uc810\ub3c4 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc740 \uacf5\uac1c \ube0c\ub9ac\ud551\uc744 \ub0b4\ub193\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0 \uc218\ucd9c \ud1b5\uc81c\ub3c4 \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n&#8212;\n\n<h3>\uac70\uc2dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc18d \u20181\uc6d4 \uc808\ubcbd\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n\n<p>\ubd80\uc0b0 \ubb34\uc5ed \ud734\uc804\uc774 2027\ub144 1\uc6d4 10\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0\ub85c\ub9cc \uc5f0\uc7a5\ub41c \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc9e7\uc740 \uc548\uc815 \uad6c\uac04 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac15\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uace0, \uc704\uc548\ud654\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc774\ud6c4 6.72\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uba38\ubb3c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uae08\uc758 \ud3c9\uc628\uc744 \ucd94\uaca9\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \ub2e4\uac00\uc62c 1\uc6d4 \u2018\uc808\ubcbd\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc5d0 \uc774 \uc870\uc6a9\ud55c \uae30\uac04\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud2b9\ud788 \ubbf8 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 5%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\uac00 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub354 \ud070 \uac70\uc2dc \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc678\uba74\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 19\ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \uace0\uc810\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uba74 \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc\uc640 \uc790\ubcf8\uc9d1\uc57d \uc5c5\uc885\uc740 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc1b\ub294\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uc644\ucda9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120 \uc2a4\ud2f0\ud504\ub108(steepener)\uc640 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n&#8212;\n\n<h3>\uc11d\uc720\u00b7\ud658\uc728\u00b7\uae30\uc220\uc758 \u2018\uc2dc\uac04\ud45c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u2019 \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d<\/h3>\n\n<p>\uc11d\uc720\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc774\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dc\uacc4\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uae34\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 105\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc77c\uc77c \uc11d\uc720 \uc18c\ube44\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 1\uc5b5300\ub9cc\ubc30\ub7f4\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc11d\uc720\uc758 \uc57d 20%\uac00 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ud574\ud611\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubbfc\uac10\ub3c4\uac00 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub192\ub2e4. \uae09\ub4f1 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \ud3ec\ucc29\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uba70, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 60\uc77c \ud734\uc804 \uc131\uc0ac \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0\ub294 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uad8c\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc911\uad6d\uc778\ubbfc\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc2dc\ud658\uc728(\uc911\uac04\uac12) \uc124\uc815\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uc704\uc548\ud654\uac00 6.80\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4 \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc774\ub294 \ubca0\uc774\uc9d5\uc774 1\uc6d4 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc2dc\ud55c\uc758 \ubd95\uad34 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5fc\ub450\uc5d0 \ub450\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1 \uaca9\ud654 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c USD\/CNY\ub294 \ube60\ub974\uac8c 7.00\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\ub824\ubd99\uc740 \uc804\ub840\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, USD\/CNY \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uad6c\ucd95\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \ucd5c\ucca8\ub2e8 \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub85c\uce69\uc758 90% \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ub9cc\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc801 \uaf2c\ub9ac\uc704\ud5d8(tail risk)\uc744 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 140\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb34\uae30 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub3fc \uc788\uace0, \ubbf8\u00b7\uc911 \uac04 \ub300\ub9cc \uad00\ub828 \uacf5\uc2dd \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ubd80\uc7ac\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc139\ud130 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 ETF\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774, \ub3cc\ubc1c\uc801\uc778 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubd09\uc1c4 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ube44\uc6a9 \ud6a8\uc728\uc801 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uad6c\ub9e4 \uaddc\ubaa8, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc624\ub9cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uc678\uad50 \uc9c4\uc804 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub97c \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4 \u2018\uce21\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\u2019\uac00 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub97c \uccad\uc0b0\ud560\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubca0\ud305\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud560\uc9c0\ub97c \uc88c\uc6b0\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc138 \uac1c\uc758 \uc2dc\uacc4\uac00 \uce74\uc6b4\ud2b8\ub2e4\uc6b4\ub418\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548, \uac70\ub798 \uae30\uac04\uc744 \uc9e7\uac8c \uac00\uc838\uac00\uace0 \ud2b9\uc815 \ub0a0\uc9dc\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc790\ubcf8\uc744 \uc9c0\ud0a4\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\u2013\uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551 \ud68c\ub2f4\uc740 \u2018\uc77c\uc815\ud45c\u2019\ub9cc \ub0a8\uacbc\ub2e4. \ubd80\uc0b0 \ud734\uc804\uc740 2027\ub144 1\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc7a5\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc720\uac00\u00b7\ud658\uc728\u00b7\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc758 3\uac1c \uc2dc\ud55c \u20181\uc6d4 \uc808\ubcbd\u2019 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305 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