{"id":68921,"date":"2026-09-26T09:19:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/ubs-flags-diesel-squeeze-as-brent-rebounds-bolstering-case-for-broader-commodity-upcycle-into-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T09:19:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T09:19:46","slug":"ubs-flags-diesel-squeeze-as-brent-rebounds-bolstering-case-for-broader-commodity-upcycle-into-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/ubs-flags-diesel-squeeze-as-brent-rebounds-bolstering-case-for-broader-commodity-upcycle-into-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc18d \ub514\uc824 \uc218\uae09 \uc555\ubc15 \uacbd\uace0\u20262026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc804\ub9dd \uac15\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uae08\uc740 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uc790\uc0b0 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc758 \ucd08\uae30 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\uace0, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uae08\uc18d\uc774 \ub4a4\ub97c \uc774\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uac00 \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc130\uace0 \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c\uc774 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc81c\uae30\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 97~100\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud574 \uc654\uace0, \uacbd\uc720\ub294 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud574 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, UBS\ub294 \ubd84\uc0b0\ub41c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\ub97c \uad8c\uace0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub17c\uc9c0\ub294 2026\ub144\uc774 \ub354 \uae34 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc810\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc11d\uc720\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \uacf5\uae09 \uc804\ub9dd \uac1c\uc120\uacfc \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544 \ub3d9\uc11c \uc1a1\uc720\uad00(East-West pipeline) \uc7ac\uac00\ub3d9\uc774 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub97c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 97\ub2ec\ub7ec \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\ub0b4\ub838\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ud6c4 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uac70\ub798\uc77c \ub3d9\uc548 \ub9e4\uc218\uc138\uac00 \ubcf5\uadc0\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uacc4\uc57d \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uac70\uc758 12% \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ub2e4\uc2dc 108\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \ub354 \ud070 \ud2c0\uc740 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\ub3c4 \uc139\ud130\uac00 \uc21c\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\ub85c, \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uadc0\uae08\uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0b0\uc5c5\uae08\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774\uc5b4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub85c, \uad81\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc0b0\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2000\ub144\ub300 \ud638\ud669\uae30\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c\uc758 \ubcf8\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 2006\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub410\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacbd\uc720\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc81c\uc57d \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 9\uc6d4 22\uc77c \uae30\uc900 \uc804\uad6d \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 \uac24\ub7f0\ub2f9 \uc57d 6.53\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc815\uc81c\uc720(\ub514\uc2a4\ud2f8\ub808\uc774\ud2b8) \uc7ac\uace0\ub294 1982\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac70\uc2ac\ub7ec \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \uc790\ub8cc \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\ub2f9 \uc2dc\uae30 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. GSC \ucee4\uba38\ub514\ud2f0 \uc778\ud154\ub9ac\uc804\uc2a4\ub294 \uc7ac\uace0\uac00 2027\ub144 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 5\ub144 \uc800\uc810 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc6b4\uc1a1\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5\u00b7\uc81c\uc870\u00b7\uc2dd\ud488 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc804\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc804\uc774\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. UBS\uc758 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uadc0\uae08\uc18d\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc0b0\uc5c5\uae08\uc18d\u00b7\ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud558\uba70, \ubd80\ucc44, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559, \uc804\ub825 \uc218\uc694, \uacf5\uae09 \uc81c\uc57d\uc744 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc790\ubcf8\uc740 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc7ac\ubc30\ubd84\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801 \uacf5\uae09\uc740 \ub290\ub9ac\uac8c \ud655\ub300\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud5a5\ud6c4 10\ub144\uc758 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uc790\uc0b0 \ud76c\uc18c\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uc790\uc0b0 \ud76c\uc18c\uc131\uc758 10\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc790\ubcf8\uc758 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 \uc628\uc2a4\ub2f9 2,500\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud55c \uae08\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uac00 \ucd08\uae30 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc744 \uc7a5\uc2dd\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc640 \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub4a4\ucc98\uc9c4 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc139\ud130 \uc911 \ucd94\uaca9 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc601\uc5ed\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud574, \uc774 \ubb3c\uacb0\uc5d0 \uc55e\uc11c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uacac\uace0\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub825\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud55c \ub4a4 108\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud55c \uc810\uc740, \ud604\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ud55c \uacf5\uae09 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bull call spread)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uac15\uc138 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574, \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8(defined risk)\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \ud3ec\ucc29\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc815\uc81c\uc720 \uc7ac\uace0\uac00 1982\ub144\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uad00\uce21\ub410\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc800\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub974\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub09c\ubc29\uc720(heating oil) \ubc0f \uacbd\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubc0f \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ub2dd\uc740 \ub18d\uc5c5 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c1\uc811 \uc804\uc774\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc2dd\ub7c9(\ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c) \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \ubcf4\ub4dc(\ud22c\uc790 \uae30\ud68c)\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc800\ud3c9\uac00\ub41c \ud50c\ub808\uc774\ub85c \ubd80\uac01\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub192\uc740 \uacbd\uc720 \ubc0f \ube44\ub8cc \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \ub18d\uc5c5\uc758 \ub9c8\uc9c4\uc744 \uc555\ubc15\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ud6c4\ubc18\ubd80\uc5d0 \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub358 2006\ub144\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uae09\ub4f1\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubc00, \uc625\uc218\uc218, \ub300\ub450(\ucf69) \ub4f1 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uc774\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uacf5\uae09\uc740 \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801 \ud0c0\uc784\ub77c\uc778\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc88c\uc6b0\ub418\ubbc0\ub85c, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc131\uc219\ud560 \uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \ub354 \uae34 \ucf5c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\ud55c\ub2e4. \uace1\ubb3c \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c \uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(calendar spread)\ub97c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc778 \ub0a0\uc528 \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ub178\uc774\uc988\ub97c \ud53c\ud574 \uac00\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uacf5\uae09 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ub2dd\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uae30\uad00 \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uace0\uac1d\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \ud574\ub2f9 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubd84\uc0b0 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uad8c\uace0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc6d4\uac00 \uc790\ubcf8\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc774\ub3d9\uc774 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc811\uadfc \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc120\uc810\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uae08\u2192\uc0b0\uc5c5\uae08\uc18d\u2192\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub85c \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc8fc\ub3c4\uad8c \uc774\ub3d9, \uc774\uc81c \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \ucc28\ub840? \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\u00b7\uacbd\uc720 \uc7ac\uace0 \ucd5c\uc800\uac00 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc555\ubc15, UBS\ub294 \ubd84\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\uc640 2026\ub144 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc2dc\uc791 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc81c\uc2dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\uae08\u2192\uc0b0\uc5c5\uae08\uc18d\u2192\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub85c \uc288\ud37c\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc8fc\ub3c4\uad8c \uc774\ub3d9, \uc774\uc81c \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \ucc28\ub840? \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\u00b7\uacbd\uc720 \uc7ac\uace0 \ucd5c\uc800\uac00 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc555\ubc15, UBS\ub294 \ubd84\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\uc640 2026\ub144 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc2dc\uc791 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc81c\uc2dc.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/ubs-flags-diesel-squeeze-as-brent-rebounds-bolstering-case-for-broader-commodity-upcycle-into-2026\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 5.0.1.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UBS, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc18d 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