{"id":54320,"date":"2026-09-17T04:19:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T04:19:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%a0%90%eb%8f%84%ed%91%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%b5%9c%ec%a2%85%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ec%8b%9c%ec%82%ac%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84%ea%b8%88\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T04:19:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T04:19:54","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%a0%90%eb%8f%84%ed%91%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%b5%9c%ec%a2%85%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ec%8b%9c%ec%82%ac%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84%ea%b8%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%a0%90%eb%8f%84%ed%91%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%b5%9c%ec%a2%85%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ec%8b%9c%ec%82%ac%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84%ea%b8%88\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900, \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc2dc\uc0ac\u2026\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uae09\ub4f1\u00b7\uc99d\uc2dc \ud558\ub77d\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 12\uba85\uc758 \uc758\uacb0\uad8c \ubcf4\uc720 \uc704\uc6d0 \uc804\uc6d0\uc758 \ucc2c\uc131\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc989\uac01 \ubc18\uc751\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc138\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c4 \ubc18\uba74 \ubbf8 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc740 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud3c9\uade0\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c 1% \uc774\uc0c1 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc838 \ub099\ud3ed\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\uace0 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc740 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub294\ub370, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ud5a5\ud55c \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc800\uc6b8\uc9c8\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 10\uc6d4\uacfc 12\uc6d4 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub300\ub7b5 \ubc18\ubc18 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc608\uc0c1\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3c8 8\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\ub294 \uc560\ud2c0\ub79c\ud0c0 \uc5f0\uc740\uc758 GDPNow \ucd94\uc815\uce58\ub97c 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc728 5.1% \uc131\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uae30\uc5ec\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(Dot Plot)\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4. 18\uba85 \uc911 16\uba85\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \ucd5c\uc18c 1\ucc28\ub840 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uace0, 4\uba85\uc740 2\ucc28\ub840 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uc0c1 2027\ub144\uc774\ub098 2028\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate)\ub294 3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c 4%~4.25%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub410\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 2029\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 3.7%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ub0b4\ub144 2.3%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub410\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub978 \ud55c\ud3b8 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 1% \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc694\uad6c\ud588\uace0, \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4(USD\/JPY)\uc740 100\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1\ud574 156.00\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 8\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud558\ubc29\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 2\ub144\ubb3c \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 \uc20f(\ub9e4\ub3c4) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\ud55c\ub2e4. Fed\uac00 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4%~4.25%\ub85c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uace0 GDPNow\uac00 3\ubd84\uae30 5.1%\uc758 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a4\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc120\ud0dd\uc9c0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\uc678\ub410\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uc815\ub3c4 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uac8c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4, \uad6d\ucc44(\ucc44\ubb34\uc99d\uad8c) \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc740 \ud604 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ub825\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud3c9\uade0\uc9c0\uc218\uc640 \uacbd\uae30\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac(consumer discretionary) ETF\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub85c \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984\uc774 \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud55c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uac00 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc84\ud2f8 \uc218\ub294 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae08\ub9ac \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc608\uae30\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c Fed \uae34\ucd95 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\uc2dd \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc654\uc73c\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc740 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc678\ud658 \ubc0f \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ud68c<\/h3>\n<p>\uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 Fed\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \uc774\ud6c4 156.00\uc744 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud55c \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4\uc744 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\ub098, \uacfc\uac70 300~500\ud54d \uae09\ub77d\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud588\ub358 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0\ub294 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uae08\uc694\uc77c BOJ \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub178\ud06c\uc544\uc6c3 \uc635\uc158(knock-out options)\uc73c\ub85c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae08\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\uac12\uc774 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ub192\uc740 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ubb34\uc774\uc790 \uc790\uc0b0 \ubcf4\uc720\uc758 \uae30\ud68c\ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub192\uc5ec \uae08 \uc120\ubb3c\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ub193\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uae08\uc758 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2dc \ub9e4\ub3c4(\u2018Sell rallies\u2019)\ub97c \ub178\ub9ac\uac70\ub098, \ud558\ub77d \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubca0\uc5b4 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bear put spreads) \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cFed \ub9e4\ud30c \uc1fc\ud06c\u201d\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae09\ub4f1, \ub2e8\uae30\ucc44 \ub9e4\ub3c4\u00b7\ub2e4\uc6b0 \uae09\ub77d\u2026\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc2dc\uc0ac. 2\ub144\ubb3c \uc20f\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218 \ud48b\u00b7VIX \ucf5c\ub85c \ud558\ubc29 \ud5e4\uc9c0, \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4\u00b7\uae08 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta 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