{"id":54299,"date":"2026-09-16T13:19:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:19:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%c2%b7ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-1-1535%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T13:19:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:19:12","slug":"%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%c2%b7ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-1-1535%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%c2%b7ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-1-1535%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc720\ub85c\ud654, \uc5f0\uc900 \uacb0\uc815\u00b7ECB \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uace0 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 1.1535\ub2ec\ub7ec \uadfc\ucc98\uc11c \uc548\uc815\uc138"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\ub85c\ud654\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc720\ub7fd\uc7a5 \ucd08\ubc18 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 1.1535\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\ub294 18:00 GMT(\ud55c\uad6d\uc2dc\uac04 \uc775\uc77c 03:00)\ub85c \uc608\uc815\ub41c \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed) \uc815\ucc45\uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\ub9ac \uc18d\uc5d0 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 3.75%~4.00%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b4 \ud655\ub960\uc740 92.5%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubcc4\ub3c4\ub85c \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc57d 79%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc815\ucc45\uc131\uba85, \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh) \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubc0f \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd \uad00\ub828 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc3e0\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB) \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac70\ub860\ud558\uba70 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud574\uc654\ub2e4. ECB\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\uac8c \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 EUR\/USD\uac00 1.1532 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba70 20\uae30\uac04 EMA(1.1589) \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, 14\uc77c RSI\ub294 40 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc740 1.1589, \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub294 1.1500\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>EUR\/USD \uc57d\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 EUR\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \ud658\uc728\uc774 1.1535\ub85c \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc778 1.1500 \ubc14\ub85c \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9f4\ub3c4\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 1.1450\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub300\ube44 \uae30\ub300\uc218\uc775 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \ud1b5\ud654\uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ucd08\uae30 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ud3c9\uade0 2%~4% \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\ubc88 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 92.5%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc2e4\uc81c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc9c1\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\ub274\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ud314\ub77c(sell the news)\u2019 \uc131\uaca9\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \ub4a4 \uae30\uc874 \ud558\ub77d \ucd94\uc138\uac00 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ub2e8\uc21c \ud48b \ub9e4\uc218\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \ubca0\uc5b4 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bear put spread)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 EUR\/USD \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \uc9c1\ud6c4 10%~15%\uac00\ub7c9 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ucd95\uc18c\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc635\uc158(\ub871 \uc635\uc158) \uac00\uce58\ub294 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ud6fc\uc190\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\uc0c1\ubc29 \ubc18\uc804 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0<\/h3>\n\n<p>ECB\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. ECB\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc758 \ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc57d \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(SEP)\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \ub0a8\uc740 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c(\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801) \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0bc \uacbd\uc6b0, EUR\/USD\ub294 \uc20f\ucee4\ubc84\ub9c1\uc73c\ub85c 20\uae30\uac04 \uc9c0\uc218\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120(1.1589) \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc744 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0c1\ubc29 \ubc18\uc804 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub77c\uba74 \ucf5c \uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(call calendar spread)\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc2dc\uac04\uac00\uce58 \uac10\uc18c(\uc138\ud0c0)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc804\uccb4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc5f0\uc900 D-\ub370\uc774, \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \uc6b4\uba85\uc740?\u201d EUR\/USD 1.1535 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ub4f1\ub77d, 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 92.5%\uc5d0 \uacbd\uacc4. ECB \ub9e4\ud30c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138\u00b71.1500 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc8fc\ubaa9, \ud48b\u00b7\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub300\ube44.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201c\uc5f0\uc900 D-\ub370\uc774, \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \uc6b4\uba85\uc740?\u201d EUR\/USD 1.1535 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ub4f1\ub77d, 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 92.5%\uc5d0 \uacbd\uacc4. ECB \ub9e4\ud30c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138\u00b71.1500 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc8fc\ubaa9, \ud48b\u00b7\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub300\ube44.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%c2%b7ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-1-1535%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 5.0.1.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\uc720\ub85c\ud654, \uc5f0\uc900 \uacb0\uc815\u00b7ECB \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uace0 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 1.1535\ub2ec\ub7ec \uadfc\ucc98\uc11c \uc548\uc815\uc138 - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201c\uc5f0\uc900 D-\ub370\uc774, \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \uc6b4\uba85\uc740?\u201d EUR\/USD 1.1535 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ub4f1\ub77d, 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 92.5%\uc5d0 \uacbd\uacc4. ECB \ub9e4\ud30c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138\u00b71.1500 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc8fc\ubaa9, \ud48b\u00b7\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub300\ube44.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%c2%b7ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-1-1535%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T13:19:12+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T13:19:12+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/vtmarketsglobal\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@vtmarketsglobal\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\uc720\ub85c\ud654, \uc5f0\uc900 \uacb0\uc815\u00b7ECB \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uace0 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 1.1535\ub2ec\ub7ec \uadfc\ucc98\uc11c \uc548\uc815\uc138 - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u201c\uc5f0\uc900 D-\ub370\uc774, \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \uc6b4\uba85\uc740?\u201d EUR\/USD 1.1535 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ub4f1\ub77d, 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 92.5%\uc5d0 \uacbd\uacc4. 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