{"id":54151,"date":"2026-09-13T20:19:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T20:19:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ed%8f%ac%ec%a7%80%ec%85%98-%ea%b8%89%eb%b3%80%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%a8%ea%b8%b0-%ed%95%98%eb%b0%a9-%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ea%b5%ac%eb%a6%ac%c2%b7\/"},"modified":"2026-09-13T20:19:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T20:19:09","slug":"%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ed%8f%ac%ec%a7%80%ec%85%98-%ea%b8%89%eb%b3%80%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%a8%ea%b8%b0-%ed%95%98%eb%b0%a9-%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ea%b5%ac%eb%a6%ac%c2%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ed%8f%ac%ec%a7%80%ec%85%98-%ea%b8%89%eb%b3%80%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%a8%ea%b8%b0-%ed%95%98%eb%b0%a9-%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ea%b5%ac%eb%a6%ac%c2%b7\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5d4\ud654 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uae09\ubcc0\uc5d0 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uacbd\uace0\u2026\uad6c\ub9ac\u00b7\ub300\ub450\ub294 \uc57d\uc138 \uadf9\ub2e8 \ub3c4\ub2ec"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Commitments of Traders(COT) \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\ud654\ub294 \ucee4\uba38\uc15c(Commercial) \uc21c\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\uac04 \uae30\uc900 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 49%\uc758 \uc774\ub3d9\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc7a5\uae30 \uad00\uc810\uc740 \ub35c \ub2e8\ubc29\ud5a5\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. iCOT \uc2a4\ucf54\uc5b4\ub294 1\ub144 \uae30\uc900 \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a4\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uacfc\uac70 5\ub144 \uae30\uc900\uc758 \uac15\uc138 \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc774 \uc55e\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud588\ub358 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc740 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \uadf9\ub2e8 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \ud615\uc131\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\ub2ec\ub7ec(NZD)\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uac04 \ucee4\uba38\uc15c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 19%\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc73c\ub098, 1\ub144 iCOT\ub294 \uc18c\ud3ed \uac15\uc138\uc778 \ubc18\uba74 5\ub144 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub354 \uc57d\uc138\uc801\uc778 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uba70 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>FX \uc678 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uad6c\ub9ac\uac00 \ub300\ud615 \ud22c\uae30\uc138\ub825(Large Speculator)\uacfc \ucee4\uba38\uc15c \uc21c\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uc545 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc57d\uc138 COT \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad6c\ub3c4\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4 \uad6d\uba74\uacfc, \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uaca9 \uc57d\uc138\uc640 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub824 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \ubc14 \uc788\uc73c\ub098, \u2018\ucee4\uba38\uc15c \ud56d\ubcf5(commercial capitulation)\u2019\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uae38\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub300\ub450(soybeans)\ub3c4 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc57d\uc138 \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc218\uc8fc~\uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc804\uc744 \uac15\uc81c\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4\ub294 \uac15\uc138 \uce21\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub298\uc5b4\ub09c \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub300\ud615 \ud22c\uae30\uc138\ub825 \uc21c\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 339\uac1c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c, \ucee4\uba38\uc15c \uc21c\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 342\uac1c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \uadf9\ub2e8 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud558\uba70, 2020\ub144 \uc720\uc0ac \uc0ac\ub840\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub354 \uac00\ud30c\ub978 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4\uc774 \uc18c\uc694\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Near-Term FX Risks and Trade Opportunities<\/h3>\n<p>\ucee4\uba38\uc15c \uc21c\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc8fc\uac04 \uae30\uc900 49%\ub098 \uae09\ubcc0\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\ud654\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\uc870 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc911\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d4\ud654\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud574 \uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc744 145\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ubc00 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \uc804\uc220\uc801 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud558\ub418, \uc7a5\uae30 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc801\uc778 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uac04 \ucee4\uba38\uc15c \uc774\ub3d9\uc774 19%\ub85c \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uac04\ub300\ubcc4 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc11c\ub85c \ucda9\ub3cc\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \ud604 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud0a4\uc704\ub2ec\ub7ec(NZD)\ub97c \ub2e8\ub3c5\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ud53c\ud558\ub294 \uac8c \ub0ab\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uc640 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \uc810\uac80\ud574 \ub354 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Commodities at Positioning Extremes<\/h3>\n<p>\uad6c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc57d\uc138 COT \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud22c\uae30\u00b7\uc0c1\uc5c5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc774 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uc3e0\ub9ac\uba74 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \uc870\uc815\uc774 \ub4a4\ub530\ub974\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uad6c\ub9ac \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ub2f9 4.20\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc774\ubc88 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc740 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc2e0\ud638\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud070 \uacbd\uace0\ub85c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc5ec\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \ucee4\uba38\uc15c \ud56d\ubcf5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0\ub294 \uc720\uc758\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubcf8\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \ubc18\uc804 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \uadf9\ub2e8 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub418\ub808 \uc2a4\ud034\uc988(\uc1fc\ud2b8\ucee4\ubc84\ub9c1)\ub85c \uccad\uc0b0\ub418\uba70 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \u2018\ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\u2019 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uc0ac\ub840\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \uacf5\ub9e4\ub3c4\ubcf4\ub2e4, \uad6c\ub9ac \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ubcf4\uc720\ubd84)\uc758 \uc190\uc808\uc120\uc744 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ud558\uac8c \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ucabd\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub300\ub450 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uac70\uc758 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc57d\uc138 \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae09\ub77d\uc5d0 \ucde8\uc57d\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub2e4. 2020\ub144 10\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uad00\ucc30\ub410\ub358 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud589\ud0dc\uc640 \ub9c8\ucc2c\uac00\uc9c0\ub85c, \uadf9\ub2e8 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc740 \ud55c\ub3d9\uc548 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc758 \uc190\uc775\ube44\ub294 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub85c\uc11c\ub294 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub294 \ub300\ub450 \ub871 \uacc4\uc57d\uc758 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ud655\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubc18\uba74 \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4\ub294 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud070 \uac15\uc138 \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0 \ub193\uc5ec \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ud5e8\ub9ac\ud5c8\ube0c(Henry Hub) \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 MMBtu\ub2f9 2.30\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uaca8\uc6b8 \uc2dc\uc98c\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc0c1 2020\ub144 \uc720\uc0ac \uad6c\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubcf8\uaca9 \ub7a0\ub9ac \ucd09\ubc1c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4\uc774 \uac78\ub838\ub358 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc131\uae09\ud568\uc740 \uacbd\uacc4\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uad81\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc740 \uc815\ud655\ud55c \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d \uc2dc\uacc4\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \u2018\uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc9c0\ub3c4\u2019\ub77c\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc78a\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc8fc\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc790\uae08 \ud22c\uc785\uc744 \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud558\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uc804\uc220\uacfc \uc7a5\uae30 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ubd84\ub9ac\ud558\uba74, \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ud63c\uc7a1\ud574\uc9c4(\ud06c\ub77c\uc6b0\ub514\ub4dc) \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub300\ud3b8\uc5d0 \uc11c\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>COT \uae09\ubcc0: \uc5d4\ud654 \ucee4\uba38\uc15c 49% \uc774\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825, \uc911\uc7a5\uae30 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \ud63c\uc870. 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