{"id":52271,"date":"2026-07-31T12:58:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T12:58:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%9f%bd-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ec%a1%b4-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%ec%97%90-%ec%b1%84%ea%b6%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%9d%94%eb%93%a4\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T12:58:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T12:58:32","slug":"%ec%9c%a0%eb%9f%bd-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ec%a1%b4-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%ec%97%90-%ec%b1%84%ea%b6%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%9d%94%eb%93%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%9f%bd-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ec%a1%b4-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%ec%97%90-%ec%b1%84%ea%b6%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%9d%94%eb%93%a4\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc720\ub7fd \uc99d\uc2dc, \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uace0\ucc29 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud754\ub4e4\u2026\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc18d \uc18d \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\ub7fd \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uac15\uc138\ub85c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc3df\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub294 \uc5c7\uac08\ub838\ub2e4. \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc18d\ubcf4 CPI\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.9%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\uace0, \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI\ub294 2.5%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(2.4%)\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uba70 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774 5\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ub3c5\uc77c\uc758 \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c\ub294 6,000\uac74 \uc99d\uac00\ud588\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 6.4%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.1%, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 1.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub85c\uc774\uc988 \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4 \ubc14\ub85c\ubbf8\ud130\ub294 44\uc5d0\uc11c 49\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc774\ud0c8\ub9ac\uc544 CPI\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud588\uace0, \ud504\ub791\uc2a4\ub294 2.1%\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1(1.8%)\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud398\uc778\uc740 18\uc5b5 \uc720\ub85c\uc758 \uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0 \ud751\uc790\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubd84\ud2b8\ucc44\ub294 20\uc5ec \ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 7\uc6d4 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ud5a5\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984 \uc18d\uc5d0 EU \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 0.8~1.0% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. FTSE\ub294 10,980.33(+0.76%), DAX 25,847.63(+1.07%), CAC 8,562.14(+0.90%)\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 240\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc \uac15\uc81c \uccad\uc0b0\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c\uac00 18% \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4. \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790\ub294 24%, SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\ub294 29% \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uace0, \ub2db\ucf00\uc774\ub294 4% \ub118\uac8c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc740 8\ub300 1 \ud45c\uacb0\ub85c \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 1.00%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 10\uc6d4 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uc57d 79%\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4\uc740 163 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c 158\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub77d\ud55c \ub4a4 160.40 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uac14\ub2e4\uac00, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785 \ud655\uc778 \ubc0f \u201c\ub4dc\ubb38 \ud55c\uad6d\uc758 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\ub3c4\u201d\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc774 \uc804\ud574\uc9c4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc7a5 \ub9c9\ud310 159 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \uc7ac\ucc28 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \uae09\ub4f1\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc544\ub9c8\uc874\uc740 2026\ub144 \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790(CapEx) \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc57d 2,200\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 4,960\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ubc31\ub85c\uadf8\uac00 \uc138 \uc790\ub9bf\uc218 \uc99d\uac00\uc728\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc560\ud50c\uc740 \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac \ube44\uc6a9 \uc555\ubc15 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 4\ubd84\uae30 \ub9e4\ucd9c \uc99d\uac00\uc728\uc744 9~11%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \uc5f0\uacc4 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc758\uc2dd\ud55c \ucc44 \uc8fc\ub9d0\uc744 \ub9de\uc558\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 0.5%, WTI\ub294 0.9% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \uae08\uc740 1.2% \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY)\ub294 0.1% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc740 1.2%, \uc774\ub354\ub9ac\uc6c0\uc740 1.5% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 0.5~1.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, S&#038;P500 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 0.52% \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n<p>\u2018\uc0c1\ud669\uc778\uc2dd(Situational Awareness)\u2019 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 240\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uccad\uc0b0\uc758 \uc5ec\ud30c\uac00 \uc9c4\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc220 \uc139\ud130\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc7a5\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub294 2021\ub144 \uc544\ucf00\uace0\uc2a4(Archegos) \ubd95\uad34\uc640 \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uac8c, \ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ube0c\ub85c\ucee4\ub4e4\uc774 200\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc11c\ub458\ub7ec \ucc98\ubd84\ud558\uba70 \uc218 \uc8fc\uac04 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ud30c\uae09\uc744 \ub0a8\uacbc\ub358 \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \uc5f0\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \ub192\uc544\uc9c4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uace0\ubca0\ud0c0 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc885\ubaa9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubcf4\ud638\uc801 \ud48b \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \uc544\uc774\uc5b8 \ucf58\ub3c4\ub974 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uacfc \ud55c\uad6d \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uacf5\uc870\ub41c \ud1b5\ud654(\ud658\uc728) \uac1c\uc785\uc744 \uc2e4\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 FX \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc870\uc815\uc774 \uc694\uad6c\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc77c\ubcf8\uc774 2024\ub144 \uc5d4\ud654 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\ub300 620\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ud22c\uc785\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ucd94\uc138 \ubc18\uc804\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uba70 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ud070 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uc785\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 163\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \u2018\ubc29\uc5b4\uc120\u2019\uc744 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \uc124\uc815\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124(risk reversal) \ud65c\uc6a9\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ud5e4\uc9c0<\/h3>\n<p>\uc720\ub7fd\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI\uac00 2.5%\ub85c 5\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky)\u2019 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uc758 \ube60\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud558\uae30\ub294 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \ub3c5\uc77c \ubd84\ud2b8\ucc44\ub294 20\uc5ec \ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 7\uc6d4 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud574, \ucc44\uad8c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uac00\uc744\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\ub9ac(\uc218\uc775\ub960)\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\uc651\uc158(swaptions)\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ud5e4\uc9c0\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc77c\ubd80 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uac08\ub4f1 \uc644\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\uc774 \uc788\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uc8fc\ub9d0 \uc911 \ub3cc\ubc1c \ud655\uc804 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ubbc0\ub85c \uc800\ube44\uc6a9\uc758 \ud14c\uc77c\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \ubbfc\uac10\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub300 \uc7ac\uc9c4\uc785\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4. \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc6d0\uc720\uc640 \uae08\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\ub97c \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\ub7fd \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud55c\u2019 \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud6c4\ud1f4, \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \ud754\ub4e4. \uc544\uc2dc\uc544\ub294 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc 240\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uccad\uc0b0 \ucda9\uaca9 \ud6c4 \ubc18\ub4f1. 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