{"id":52123,"date":"2026-07-29T23:59:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T23:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ea%b2%bd%eb%a1%9c-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T23:59:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T23:59:17","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ea%b2%bd%eb%a1%9c-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ea%b2%bd%eb%a1%9c-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c \uc644\ud654 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 101\uc120 \ud558\ud68c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 18:00 GMT\uc5d0 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud55c \ub4a4 101.00\uc120\uc744 \ud558\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\ub2e4. \ud45c\uacb0\uc740 9\ub3003\uc73c\ub85c, 3\uba85\uc758 \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud558\uba70 \ubc18\ub300\ud45c\ub97c \ub358\uc84c\ub2e4. DXY\ub294 \ubc1c\ud45c \ud6c4 \ud55c \uc2dc\uac04 \ub0b4 100.90 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \uc7a5\uc911 \uace0\uc810\uc740 101.50\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\uc73c\ub098 \uc774\ub97c \ub118\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300 \uc758\uacac\uc774 3\ud45c\ub098 \ub098\uc654\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \u2018\ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \ucd95\uc18c\u2019 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. 9\uc6d4 16\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960(\uc554\ubb35 \ud655\ub960)\uc740 \ud68c\uc758 \uc804 \uc57d 80%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 64%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uace0, 10\uc6d4\uc740 \uc57d 75%, 12\uc6d4\uc740 \uc57d 85%\ub85c \uac01\uac01 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \ub300\ube44 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. 12\uc6d4 9\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 57%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 42%\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, 12\uc6d4\uc758 \ucd5c\ube48 \uae08\ub9ac \uad6c\uac04\ub3c4 \uae30\uc874 4.00%~4.25%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.75%~4.00%\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP)\uc774 \uc5c6\uace0 \uba85\uc2dc\uc801 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 9\uc6d4 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac04\ub2e4. 6\uc6d4 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 18\uac1c \uc810 \uc911 9\uac1c\uac00 2026\ub144 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ucf30\uc73c\ub098, \uc2e4\uc81c \ud22c\ud45c\uad8c\uc790\ub294 12\uba85\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce5c\ub2e4. \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 6\uc6d4 PCE\ub294 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uae30\uc900 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.2%, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.3%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1(\uc774\uc804\uce58 0.3%, 3.4%)\ub418\uba70, \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc740 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 -0.1%, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.7%(\uc774\uc804\uce58 4.1%)\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4. \uac19\uc740 \ub0a0 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP(\uc18d\ubcf4\uce58)\ub294 2.1%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uace0, \uc2e0\uaddc \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c\ub294 20\ub9cc \uac74(\uc774\uc804 18\ub9cc7\ucc9c \uac74)\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ub41c\ub2e4. \uae08\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 2\ubd84\uae30 \uace0\uc6a9\ube44\uc6a9\uc9c0\uc218(ECI) 0.8%\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \ubbf8\uc2dc\uac04\ub300 \uae30\ub300 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(1\ub144) 4.2%, (5\ub144) 3.3%\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 101.00\uacfc 101.50\uc774 \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc73c\ub85c, 100.85 \uc774\ud6c4 100.50\uacfc 100.00\uc774 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Reaction and Current Trading Strategy<\/h3>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\uac00 101.00 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824 100.90\uc120\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc00\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c \uc804\ud615\uc801\uc778 \u2018\ub8e8\uba38\uc5d0 \ud314\uace0, \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc5d0 \uc0b0\ub2e4(sell the rumor, buy the fact)\u2019 \ud328\ud134\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud45c\uacb0\uc5d0\uc11c 3\uba85\uc758 \ud22c\ud45c \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uc790 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \ud3ed\uc744 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c\ud574 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c FOMC \ub0b4\ubd80\uc758 \uc774\uacac\uc774 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub098\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc758 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ud655\ub2f5\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc18c\uc74c\uc744 \ud560\uc778\ud574 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc774 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218 \uc8fc\uac04 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc57d\uc138 \ubc14\uc774\uc5b4\uc2a4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0, 101.00 \uc800\ud56d \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2dc \ub9e4\ub3c4(\ub7a0\ub9ac \ub9e4\ub3c4)\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. DXY \uc120\ubb3c \uc20f \ub610\ub294 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(OTM) \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub85c 100.50 \ubc0f 100.00 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub300\ube44 \uae30\ub300\uc218\uc775 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc DXY\uac00 101.50\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \uc77c\uac04 \uc885\uac00\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub97c \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \ubb34\ud6a8\ud654(invalidation) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ud558\uace0, \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uccad\uc0b0\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Implications for Interest Rate Derivatives<\/h3>\n<p>9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 80%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 64%\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uc758 \uc870\uc815\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc885\ucc29\uae08\ub9ac(\ud130\ubbf8\ub110 \ub808\uc774\ud2b8) \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, SOFR \ub4f1 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac15\uc138(\uc218\uc775\ub960 \ud558\ub77d) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\uc870\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 12\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 57%\uc5d0\uc11c 42%\ub85c \uae09\ub77d\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc758 \u2018\uc800\ud56d\uc774 \uc801\uc740 \ubc29\ud5a5\u2019\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac\ub85c\uc11c\ub294 \ud558\ubc29\uc784\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc608\uc815\uc778 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(\uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.4%\u21923.3% \ub454\ud654 \uc608\uc0c1)\uc640 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP \uc18d\ubcf4\uce58(2.1% \uc804\ub9dd)\ub2e4. PCE\uac00 \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub048\uc801\ud558\uac8c(sticky) \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 DXY\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7ac\uc9c4\uc785\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc6b0\ud638\uc801 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4, \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc9c1\ud6c4 101\uc120 \ud558\ud5a5\u20263\uba85 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\ub300 \uae09\ub7ad. 9\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1\ud655\ub960 80%\u219264%, 12\uc6d4 \ub450 \ubc88 \uc778\uc0c1 57%\u219242%\ub85c \ud558\ub77d, 100\uc120 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" 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