{"id":52086,"date":"2026-07-29T12:28:37","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T12:28:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1%ec%9c%a0%eb%9f%bd-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ed%95%98\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T12:28:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T12:28:37","slug":"%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1%ec%9c%a0%eb%9f%bd-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ed%95%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1%ec%9c%a0%eb%9f%bd-%ec%a6%9d%ec%8b%9c-%ed%95%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\ub85c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\u2026\uc720\ub7fd \uc99d\uc2dc \ud558\ub77d, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 FOMC \uacb0\uc815 \ucd09\uac01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\ub7fd \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uac15\uc138\ub85c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ud6c4 \ud558\ub77d \uc804\ud658\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c\uac00 6.0% \uae09\ub77d\ud558\uba70 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd\uc740 -1.5%~+0.1% \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \ubbf8 \uc99d\uc2dc \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 -0.1%~+0.1% \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ud569\uad8c\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uc694\ub974\ub2e8 \ub0b4 \ubbf8\uad70 \uae30\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ud0c4\ub3c4\ubbf8\uc0ac\uc77c\uc744 \ubc1c\uc0ac(\uc804\ub7c9 \uc694\uaca9)\ud55c \ub370 \uc774\uc5b4, \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uac00 \uc774\ub77c\ud06c \ub0b4 \uc774\ub780 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \uc138\ub825\uc744 \ud0c0\uaca9\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud754\ub4e4\ub838\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780\ud601\uba85\uc218\ube44\ub300(IRGC)\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc870\uc120 3\ucc99\uc774 \ud53c\uaca9\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uace0, \uc774\ub780\uc740 \uc624\ub9cc\uc758 \uc911\uc7ac\uc548\uc744 \uac70\ubd80\ud588\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uae09\ub4f1\ud574 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 3.3%, WTI\uac00 3.4% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud55c\ub54c \uc57d 4% \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 82\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \uce58\uc19f\uc558\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 0.2% \uc62c\ub790\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 0.1% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub3c5\uc77c 10\ub144\ubb3c 3.12%, \ud504\ub791\uc2a4 10\ub144\ubb3c 3.91%, \uc601\uad6d \uae38\ud2b8 4.96%, \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 10\ub144\ubb3c 4.61%, \uc77c\ubcf8 \uad6d\ucc44 10\ub144\ubb3c 2.35%\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc624\ub298 \ubc24 FOMC \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uc57d 3\ubd84\uc758 1, \ub3d9\uacb0 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uc57d 70%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. 9\uc6d4\uc740 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 75%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c(25bp 57%, 50bp 20%)\ud558\uba70, \ubaa9\ud45c\uae08\ub9ac \ubc94\uc704\ub294 3.50~3.75%\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\ub294 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \u201840\uc870\uc6d0\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18\u2019(high-KRW40T) \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uace0, 3\ubd84\uae30 DRAM \ube44\ud2b8 \ucd9c\ud558\ub7c9\uc740 \uc804\ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d 10% \uc99d\uac00, NAND\ub294 \uc804\ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 \ud55c \uc790\ub9bf\uc218 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc99d\uac00\ub97c \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c HBM4\ub294 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uc591\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac14\uace0, 2027\ub144\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c HBM4E \uc0d8\ud50c\uc744 \uacf5\uae09\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2a4\ud0e0\ub2e4\ub4dc\ucc28\ud0c0\ub4dc\uac00 \uc870\uc815 \uc138\uc804\uc774\uc775(PBT) 23.3\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc804\ub9dd 20.0\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec), 10\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785, \uc911\uac04\ubc30\ub2f9 66% \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4. UBS\ub294 \uae30\ucd08 PBT 38.8\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc804\ub9dd 34.7\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc640 GWM \uc21c\uc720\uc785\uc790\uc0b0 360\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec, \ucd5c\uc18c 10\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \ub3c4\uc774\uccb4\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 \uc138\uc804\uc774\uc775 26.8\uc5b5\uc720\ub85c(\uc804\ub9dd 23.9\uc5b5\uc720\ub85c), IB \ub9e4\ucd9c 19% \uc99d\uac00 \ubc0f \ud558\ubc18\uae30 5\uc5b5\uc720\ub85c \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4. BASF\ub294 \ucd5c\ub300 10\uc5b5\uc720\ub85c, Eni\ub294 \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 34\uc5b5\uc720\ub85c\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ud558\uace0 Ares\uc640 20\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud30c\ud2b8\ub108\uc2ed\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, Reckitt\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 5\uc5b5\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \uc790\uc0ac\uc8fc \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \ub85c\uc9c0\ud14d\uc740 3\ubd84\uae30 \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc5d0 \ucd5c\ub300 2\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc CPI\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%, \uc804\uae30 \ub300\ube44 0.6%, \ub3c5\uc77c \uc218\uc785\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 6.1%, \uc601\uad6d\uc740 \uc21c\uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc2e0\uc6a9 18\uc5b5\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\u00b7\uc21c\ub300\ucd9c 77\uc5b5\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc, \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c \uc2b9\uc778 5.82\ub9cc\uac74, \uc2a4\uc6e8\ub374 GDP \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc804\uae30 \ub300\ube44 1.4%\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub410\ub2e4. IMF\ub294 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 3.0%, 2027\ub144 3.4%\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uace0, EU 0.9%, \ub3c5\uc77c 0.7%, \ud504\ub791\uc2a4 0.6%, \uc601\uad6d 1.0%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ubc0f \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\n<p>\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc758 \uc720\uc870\uc120 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 3% \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uace0 WTI\uac00 82\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ud30c\uc0dd \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac15\uc138 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ud65c\uc6a9\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc1a1\ub85c\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc57d 2,000\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720\uac00 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc774\ub780\uc774 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub97c \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 95\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc27d\uac8c \ubc00\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774 \uc815\ub3c4 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uacf5\uae09 \uc1fc\ud06c\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 15% \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud574 \uc654\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c, \ub2e8\uae30 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc740 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \uc624\ub298 \ubc24 FOMC\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ucc44\uad8c \ud30c\uc0dd \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub840\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 30%\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 60% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc758 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \ub54c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud55c \uc804\ub840\uac00 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub358 \ub9cc\ud07c, \u2018\uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988 \uc778\uc0c1\u2019\uc774 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub418\uba74 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud070 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \ubbf8 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604 4.61%\ub97c \ud6e8\uc52c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 ETF \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uace1\uc120\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc774\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud398\uc774\uc5b4 \uc2a4\uc651(payer swap) \uc9c4\uc785\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<h3>\ud1b5\ud654 \ubc0f \uc8fc\uc2dd: \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub300\uc751\uacfc \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\n<p>\ud658\uc2dc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ) \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc640 \uc5d4\ud654\ub97c \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uad00\ucc30\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4\uc774 40\ub144\ub798 \uace0\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\ub098 \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uc881\uc740 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc744 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc774\ud0c8\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube60\ub978 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\uc785\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \ud3ec\ucc29\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc720\ub85c \ubc0f \uc5d4\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc678\uac00\uaca9(OTM) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uc81c\uc548\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n<p>\ud55c\uad6d \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c\uc758 6% \uae09\ub77d\uacfc AI \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \uc6b0\ub824 \ud655\ub300\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \uc8fc\uc2dd \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 \ud558\ubc29 \ubcf4\ud638(\ub2e4\uc6b4\uc0ac\uc774\ub4dc \ud504\ub85c\ud14d\uc158) \uac15\ud654\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uc8fc\uc694 \ube45\ud14c\ud06c \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ud655\uc7a5\ub41c \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc885\ubaa9\uc758 \uae09\ub77d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ub300\ube44 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc800\ub834\ud55c \ud3b8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ud65c\uc6a9\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc870\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uc1fc\ud06c+FOMC \ubcc0\uc218\u201d\uc5d0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \ud754\ub4e4\u2026\uc720\uac00 3%\ub300 \uae09\ub4f1\u00b7\ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c 6% \uae09\ub77d. \uc720\ub7fd \uc57d\uc138 \uc804\ud658, \ubbf8\uc120\ubb3c \ubcf4\ud569. \ucc44\uad8c\uae08\ub9ac\u2191 \uc18d \uc635\uc158\u00b7\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5 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