{"id":52073,"date":"2026-07-29T08:59:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T08:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%95%84%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%84-%eb%b0%98%eb%8f%84%ec%b2%b4%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%89%eb%9d%bd%ec%97%90-%ec%bd%94%ec%8a%a4%ed%94%bc-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5%ec%97%90\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T08:59:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T08:59:00","slug":"%ec%95%84%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%84-%eb%b0%98%eb%8f%84%ec%b2%b4%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%89%eb%9d%bd%ec%97%90-%ec%bd%94%ec%8a%a4%ed%94%bc-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5%ec%97%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%95%84%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%84-%eb%b0%98%eb%8f%84%ec%b2%b4%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%89%eb%9d%bd%ec%97%90-%ec%bd%94%ec%8a%a4%ed%94%bc-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5%ec%97%90\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\uc5d0 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c \ud558\ub77d\u2026\uc774\ub780 \uae34\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc720\uac00 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ud638\uc8fc CPI \ub454\ud654\ub85c \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc8fc \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc138\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub410\ub2e4. \ud55c\uad6d \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c\uac00 6% \ub118\uac8c \uae09\ub77d\ud558\uba70 \uc6d4\uac04 \uae30\uc900 \uc190\uc2e4 \ud3ed\uc774 33%\ub85c \ucee4\uc84c\uace0, \uc7a5\uc911 8% \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 20\ubd84\uac04\uc758 \uac70\ub798 \uc911\ub2e8\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud588\ub2e4. SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\ub294 \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\uac00 \uacac\uc870\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ucd5c\ub300 20% \ubc00\ub838\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790(Capex), \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \uc8fc\uc8fc\ud658\uc6d0, \uc7a5\uae30 \uacc4\uc57d\uc5d0 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ub41c \uac00\uaca9 \uacb0\uc815(\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc2f1) \uc5ed\ud559\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac14\ub2e4. \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uc774\ub780 \ubbf8\uc0ac\uc77c\uc744 \uc694\uaca9\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud788\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544\uac00 \uc774\ub77c\ud06c \ub0b4 \uc774\ub780 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \uc138\ub825\uc744 \ud0c0\uaca9\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc7ac\ubd80\uc0c1\ud574 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubd80\uac01\ub410\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\ub098 50\uc77c \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0(SMA) 85.68\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud638\uc8fc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 2\ubd84\uae30 CPI\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uba70 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uace0, ASX200\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc808\uc0ac\ud3c9\uade0(trimmed mean) \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA) \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \ubaa8\ub450 \ud558\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 RBA \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\ub300\ub97c 20bp\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 13bp\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(ABS) \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d 7% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ubc18\uba74, \uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9 \uc644\ud654\ub85c \uc6b4\uc1a1\ube44\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 2.7% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uad50\uc5ed\uc7ac \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 1.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub41c \ubc18\uba74, \ube44\uad50\uc5ed\uc7ac\ub294 4.9%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uba70, 88\uba85\uc758 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc911 \uac70\uc758 \uc804\uc6d0\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. OIS\ub294 \uc57d 35%\uc758 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0 9\uc6d4\uc5d0 22bp\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2\uba85\uc758 \ubc18\ub300(dissent)\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud30c\uc0dd \uc804\ub7b5: \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5<\/h3>\n<p>\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc139\ud130\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574, \uacfc\uc5f4\ub41c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ud65c\uc6a9\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4. \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c\uac00 \uc6d4\uac04 \uae30\uc900 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uc6d4\ucd08 \ub300\ube44 33% \uae09\ub77d\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uccad\uc0b0(\uc5b8\uc640\uc778\ub4dc)\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\uc624\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uac15\ud55c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 2022\ub144 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \u2018\ud63c\uc7a1 \uac70\ub798\u2019 \uccad\uc0b0 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uace0\ubca0\ud0c0 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc885\ubaa9\ub4e4\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ubc14\ub2e5\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud558\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc218 \uc8fc\uac04 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub3d9\ubc18\ud55c \uac70\ub798\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc774 \uc7ac\ubd80\uac01\ub418\ub294 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud574 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uadfc\uc6d4(at-the-money) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uc81c\uc548\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \ubbf8\uc0ac\uc77c \uc694\uaca9\uacfc \uc774\ub77c\ud06c \ub0b4 \uc5f0\ud569\uad70\uc758 \ud6c4\uc18d \ud0c0\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c, \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc11d\uc720 \uc561\uccb4 \uc18c\ube44\uc758 \uc57d 20%\uac00 \ub9e4\uc77c \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\ucda9\uc9c0\uc778 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc704\ud611\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 50\uc77c \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0 85.68\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub3fc \uc788\uc73c\ub098, \uad70\uc0ac\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uace0\uc870\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud658\uc728 \uc804\ub9dd: AUD \uc57d\uc138\uc640 \uc5f0\uc900 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131<\/h3>\n<p>\ud658\uc728 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD) \uc20f\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud55c 2\ubd84\uae30 \ud638\uc8fc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 RBA \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ub97c 13bp \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0ae\ucd94\uba74\uc11c, 8\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \u2018\ub3d9\uc804 \ub358\uc9c0\uae30\u2019 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud6c4\ud1f4\ud588\ub2e4. \ube44\uad50\uc5ed\uc7ac \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 4.9%\ub85c \ub048\uc801\ud558\uac8c(sticky) \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0\ub294 \uc788\uc73c\ub098, CPI \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \ub454\ud654 \ud750\ub984\uc740 RBA\uc758 \uc989\uac01\uc801 \ub300\uc751 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud574 \ud604\uc9c0 \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \uc0c1\ubc29\uc744 \uc81c\uc57d\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c, \uc624\ub298 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uc640 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. OIS \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc57d 35%\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \u2018\uae5c\uc9dd \uc778\uc0c1\u2019 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ud604\ud589 3.50%~3.75% \uad6c\uac04 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc774\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc57d \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Fed Chair Kevin Warsh) \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \ubbf8\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 USD \uc20f \ud30c\uc0dd \uad6c\uc870\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ud615\uc131\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c \uae09\ub77d\u00b7\uc11c\ud0b7\ube0c\ub808\uc774\ucee4, SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4 20%\u2193. \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ub85c \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud655\ub300, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \ucf5c \uc81c\uc548. \ud638\uc8fc CPI \ub454\ud654\ub85c AUD \uc57d\uc138, \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uacbd\uacc4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 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content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"VT Markets -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc8fc \uae09\ub77d\uc5d0 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c \ud558\ub77d\u2026\uc774\ub780 \uae34\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc720\uac00 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ud638\uc8fc CPI \ub454\ud654\ub85c \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c \uae09\ub77d\u00b7\uc11c\ud0b7\ube0c\ub808\uc774\ucee4, SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4 20%\u2193. \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ub85c \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud655\ub300, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \ucf5c \uc81c\uc548. \ud638\uc8fc CPI \ub454\ud654\ub85c AUD \uc57d\uc138, \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uacbd\uacc4.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" 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