{"id":51910,"date":"2026-07-27T12:59:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T12:59:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ed%97%a4%ec%a7%80%ed%8e%80%eb%93%9c-%eb%a9%94%ea%b0%80%ec%ba%a1-%ec%8b%a4%ec%a0%81-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-bofa-%ed%88%ac%ec%9e%90%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T12:59:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T12:59:46","slug":"%ed%97%a4%ec%a7%80%ed%8e%80%eb%93%9c-%eb%a9%94%ea%b0%80%ec%ba%a1-%ec%8b%a4%ec%a0%81-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-bofa-%ed%88%ac%ec%9e%90%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%97%a4%ec%a7%80%ed%8e%80%eb%93%9c-%eb%a9%94%ea%b0%80%ec%ba%a1-%ec%8b%a4%ec%a0%81-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-bofa-%ed%88%ac%ec%9e%90%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc, \uba54\uac00\ucea1 \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 BofA \ud22c\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc9c0\ud45c \u2018\uadf9\ub2e8\u2019 \ub3c4\ub2ec\uc5d0 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ubca0\ud305 \ucd95\uc18c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc\uc0ad\uc2a4(GS)\uc640 UBS\ub294 \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc\ub4e4\uc774 AI\u00b7\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\u00b7\u2018\ub9e4\uadf8\ub2c8\ud53c\uc13c\ud2b8 7(Mag 7)\u2019\u00b7\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac\uc8fc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc904\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \ubc45\ud06c\uc624\ube0c\uc544\uba54\ub9ac\uce74(BAC)\uc758 \ubd88&#038;\ubca0\uc5b4 \uc9c0\ud45c(Bull &#038; Bear Indicator)\ub294 0~10 \ucc99\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c 10\uc810 \ub9cc\uc810\uc5d0 9.6\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uac89\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uc5c7\ubc15\uc790\ub294 \ucee4\ubc84 \ubc94\uc704 \ucc28\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub86f\ub41c\ub2e4. GS\uc640 UBS\ub294 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc744 \ucd94\uc801\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, BAC\ub294 \ubba4\ucd94\uc5bc\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7ETF \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984\u00b7\uc5f0\uae30\uae08\u00b7\uae30\uad00 \uc6b4\uc6a9\uc0ac\u00b7\ud5e4\uc9c0\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\ud604\uae08\u00b7\ud06c\ub808\ub527\u00b7\uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c \ub4f1\uc744 \uc885\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4. BAC\uc758 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \u2018\uc5ed\ubc1c\uc0c1(contrarian)\u2019 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uc124\uacc4\ub3fc 8\uc744 \ub118\uc73c\uba74 \uc804\uc220\uc801 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. GS\ub294 \ub610\ud55c 5\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc774\ud6c4 \u2018\ud328\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uba38\ub2c8\u2019\uac00 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018\ud56d\ubcf5(capitulaton)\u2019 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc2e4\uc801\uc740 \ub9e4\ucd9c \uae30\uc900 86%, \uc774\uc775 \uae30\uc900 80%\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\uc73c\ub098, S&#038;P500 \uad6c\uc131 \uc885\ubaa9 \uc911 \ubcf4\uace0\ub97c \ub9c8\uce5c \ube44\uc911\uc740 27%\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\uba70 \ub300\uc0c1\uc740 135\uac1c \uae30\uc5c5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc9c0\ub09c \uae08\uc694\uc77c \uc7a5\uc740 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 236\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0 S&#038;P500\uc740 3\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc62c\ub790\uc73c\ub098 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc740 162\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ub7ec\uc140\uc740 10\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0b4\ub838\uace0 \uc6b4\uc1a1\uc9c0\uc218(Transports)\ub294 102\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ud558\ub77d, \ub3d9\uc77c\uac00\uc911(Equal Weight)\uc740 62\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\uc2b9, Mag 7\uc740 27\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\ub294 1.5% \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \ubc18\uba74 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uc740 \uc57d 2.2% \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uae30\ucd08\uc18c\uc7ac\ub294 2% \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \ud544\uc218\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac\ub294 1% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0 \uae08\uc735\uacfc \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158\uc740 0.9%\uc529 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \uc548\uc815\uc138\ub85c TLT +0.1%, TLH +0.2%\uc600\uc73c\uba70 2\ub144\ubb3c 4.32%, 10\ub144\ubb3c 4.69%, 30\ub144\ubb3c 5.15%\uc600\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\ud68c \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c 88\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c, WTI\ub294 92.40\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c 82.60\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 4,052\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uac10\ud55c \ub4a4 50\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 4,100\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc130\ub2e4. VIX\ub294 17.60\uc73c\ub85c 5% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70(\uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc 20.30), 17.30\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc774 \ud615\uc131\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub294 MSFT\u00b7META\u00b7AAPL\u00b7AMZN\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c S&#038;P500 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc57d 150\uacf3\uc758 \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\uace0, \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc624\ud6c4 2\uc2dc(\ubbf8 \ub3d9\ubd80\uc2dc\uac04) 7\uc6d4 FOMC \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. GDP\ub294 +2.1%\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70 6\uc6d4 PCE\ub3c4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc18c\ub4dd\u00b7\uc9c0\ucd9c\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9\uccad\uad6c\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9\ube44\uc6a9\uc9c0\uc218(ECI)\u00b7\uc2dc\uce74\uace0 PMI\u00b77\uc6d4 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \ud574\uc678 \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uac15\uc138\ub85c \ub3c5\uc77c\uc774 1.5% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ubbf8 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \ub2e4\uc6b0 +500, S&#038;P +74, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 +460, \ub7ec\uc140 +38\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ucf30\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc139\ud130 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc804\uc220\uc801 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n<p>\ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc804\uba74\uc801\uc778 \ud22c\ub9e4(liquidation)\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc139\ud130 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. BAC \ubd88&#038;\ubca0\uc5b4 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 10\uc810 \ub9cc\uc810\uc5d0 9.6\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uadf9\ub2e8\uce58\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uba74\uc11c \u2018\uacfc\ubc00(\uacfc\uc5f4) \uc2dc\uc7a5\u2019 \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uc810\ub4f1\ub410\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uae30\uc220 \ub300\ud615\uc8fc\uc758 \uc2e4\uc801\uacfc \uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc804\uc220\uc801 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc791\ub3d9 \uc911\uc784\uc744 \uc778\uc9c0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub294 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\uae30\uc5d0 \uc801\uc808\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc774\ub2e4. \ud328\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uba38\ub2c8\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\ub358 \uace0\ubca0\ud0c0 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc5d0\ub294 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud48b \ub9e4\uc218\ub85c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub97c \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc9c4 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ucee4\ubc84\ub4dc\ucf5c\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ub192\uc740 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ubcd1\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. VIX\uac00 17.60 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uc900\uc778 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc774 \uc774\ud0c8\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub97c \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9\ub3c4 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uac70\uc2dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uad6d\uba74\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uae30\ud68c<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c S&#038;P500\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac 7,472 \uc218\uc900\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \ucd94\uc138\uc120 \uc800\ud56d \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub420 \ub54c, \ud575\uc2ec \uac70\uc2dc \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uac00 2.1%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 6\uc6d4 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\uc5b4, \uac70\uc2dc \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u2019 \uc2e0\ud638\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\/\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00\uc744 \uad6c\uc131\ud558\uba74, \ud574\ub2f9 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ud6c4\ubc18 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uacfc \uae30\ucd08\uc18c\uc7ac \ub4f1 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc131\uaca9\uc758 \uc139\ud130\ub85c \uc790\uae08 \uc774\ub3d9\uc774 \ub69c\ub837\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \ub450 \uc139\ud130 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc57d 2% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub418 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc5c4\uaca9\ud788 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574, \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub4a4\ucc98\uc838 \uc788\ub358 \uc774\ub4e4 \uc139\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubd88\ub9ac\uc2dc \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\uc0c1\uc2b9\ud615 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc)\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uccb4\uacc4\uc801 \uc811\uadfc\uc740 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc7a5\uc911 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub178\ucd9c\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub0b4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac8c \ud574\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 88\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \uae08\uc774 4,100\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc744 \uc9c0\ud0a4\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uad00\ucc30\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uc644\ud654\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5 \ub9c8\uc9c4 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ub35c\uace0 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\ub294 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \uc804\uac1c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uac04\uad6c\uc870(term structure)\ub97c \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \uc0bc\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c 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