{"id":51764,"date":"2026-07-24T01:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T01:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ea%b8%b0%ea%b0%84%ed%94%84%eb%a6%ac%eb%af%b8%ec%97%84-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%9d%b4-%eb%af%b8-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%eb%a7%a4%eb%8f%84%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%ec%b4%89%eb%b0%9c%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T01:59:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T01:59:12","slug":"%ea%b8%b0%ea%b0%84%ed%94%84%eb%a6%ac%eb%af%b8%ec%97%84-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%9d%b4-%eb%af%b8-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%eb%a7%a4%eb%8f%84%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%ec%b4%89%eb%b0%9c%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ea%b8%b0%ea%b0%84%ed%94%84%eb%a6%ac%eb%af%b8%ec%97%84-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%9d%b4-%eb%af%b8-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%eb%a7%a4%eb%8f%84%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%ec%b4%89%eb%b0%9c%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\uae30\uac04\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc138\ub97c \ucd09\ubc1c\u2026\uc5f0\uc900 \ud1b5\uc81c\ub825\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc804, \ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uc6b4\uc6a9 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc7ac\ud3b8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub9c8\uc774\ud06c \ub9c8\ud558\ub9ac(Mike Maharrey)\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc77c\uc77c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc7a1\uc74c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc7a5\uae30 \ud328\ud134 \uc778\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub97c \ub46c\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud558\uba70, 2008\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \u201c\uc555\ucd95\ub41c \uc2dc\uac04 \ud504\ub808\uc784(compressed timeframes)\u201d\uc774 \uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc778\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc65c\uace1\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub2dd\uc2a4\ud0c0 \uc124\ubb38\uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc778\uc758 46%\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \uc740\ud1f4\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc800\ucd95 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ub2f5\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c \uc800\ucd95 \uc635\uc158 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub85c\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6d4 100\ub2ec\ub7ec\ubd80\ud130 \uadc0\uae08\uc18d\uc744 \uc801\ub9bd\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc7c1\uc810\uc744 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \uaddc\uc815\ud558\uba70, \uc774\uac83\uc774 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \uad6c\uc131\uacfc \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc804\uc774 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc7ac\ud3b8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uc5d0\ud53c\uc18c\ub4dc\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uac04 \u2018\ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1(\ud0c8\ub3d9\uc870\ud654)\u2019\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2021\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc57d 1.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 2023\ub144 \uac00\uc744 \uac70\uc758 5%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ub4a4, \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 9\uc6d4 FOMC\uac00 50bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud55c \ud6c4\uc5d0\ub3c4 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2024\ub144 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c \uc57d 3.65%\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\ub144 1\uc6d4 \uc57d 4.79%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc57d 225bp \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370\uc11c\ub3c4 10\ub144\ubb3c\uc740 \uc57d 4.45% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\ub2e4. \ub274\uc695 \uc5f0\uc740\uc758 Adrian\u2013Crump\u2013Moench(ACM) \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \ub9d0 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae30\uac04\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(term premium)\uc744 \uc57d 0.6%\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c1\uc804 10\uc5ec \ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \u2018\uc81c\ub85c\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uac70\ub098 \uc74c(-)\uc758 \uc601\uc5ed\u2019\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub358 \uac83\uacfc \ub300\ube44\ub41c\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 1\uc6d4 13\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 0.8%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud574 2011\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44\ub294 40\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\uc790 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 2026\ud68c\uacc4\uc5f0\ub3c4 \ub204\uacc4 \uc57d 1\uc8705,000\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 14.2% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4(2025\ud68c\uacc4\uc5f0\ub3c4 \uc57d 1\uc8702,200\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 7.3% \uc99d\uac00). \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 \uc57d 6,523\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c 2008\ub144 9\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc774\uba70, \uae08\uc774 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \uc81c\uce58\uace0 \u2018\ucd5c\ub300 \uc900\ube44\uc790\uc0b0\u2019\uc774 \ub410\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uc81c\uae30\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc778\uc6a9\ub41c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc8fc\uc2dd-\ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \ub864\ub9c1 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\ub294 2003~2021\ub144 \u2018\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc74c(\u2013)\u2019\uc5d0\uc11c 2022\ub144 \uc57d +0.5\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\uace0 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc57d +0.6 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08 \ub9e4\uc785\uc740 4\ub144 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc5f0\uac04 1,000\ud1a4\uc744 \ub118\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, 2010~2021\ub144 \uc5f0\ud3c9\uade0 473\ud1a4 \ub300\ube44 \ud06c\uac8c \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uae08\ub9ac, \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5, \ud5e4\uc9c0\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc5f0\uc900\ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uacb0\uc815\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \ud655\ub300\ub418\ub294 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790\uc640 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc88c\uc6b0\ub418\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \ubaa9\ub3c4\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44\uac00 40\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc811\uadfc\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 \u2018\uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\ub960(\uae08\ub9ac)\u2019 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \ub4c0\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc815\ubd80\ubd80\ucc44\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc57d\uc138 \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \uc8fc\uc694 \ucc44\uad8c ETF \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \uc811\uadfc\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc758 \uae30\uac04\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \ub2e4\uc2dc 0.6%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uba70, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \ub300\uac00\ub85c \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ucc44\uad8c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, MOVE \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \u2018\uc800\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uad6d\uba74\u2019 \ud3c9\uade0\uc778 \uc57d 60 \ub300\ube44 100 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\uc651\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368, \uace0\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uace0\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc8fc\uc2dd\uacfc \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801 \uad00\uacc4\ub294 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd95\uad34\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub864\ub9c1 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\ub294 \uc57d +0.6\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uc591(+)\uc758 \uac12\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc591(+)\uc758 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\ub294 \ud45c\uc900\uc801 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc81c\ub300\ub85c \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uba70, \uba40\ud2f0\uc5d0\uc14b \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uad70\uc758 \ub3d9\ubc18 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ucde8\uc57d\ud574\uc84c\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ucc44\uad8c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\uace0, \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ubcf4\ud638\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub610\ub294 VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \uac19\uc740 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uc870\uc5b8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uae08, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \uc900\ube44\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n<p>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \ubcf4\uc720\ubd84\uc744 \uae08\uc73c\ub85c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uad50\uccb4\ud558\uba70 \uc5f0\uac04 1,000\ud1a4\uc774 \ub118\ub294 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c \ub9e4\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uae08\uc740 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \u2018\ucd5c\uace0(\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5b4) \uc900\ube44\uc790\uc0b0\u2019\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c\uc758 \uc9c0\uc704\ub97c \ud655\uace0\ud788 \uad73\ud614\ub2e4. \ud604\ubb3c \uae08 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc62c\uc5ec\ub984 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc744 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ud0c8(\u812b)\ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654\uc640 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc774\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\uacfc \uc740\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uac15\uc138 \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc5f0\uac04 1\uc8705,000\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8 \uc774\uc790 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud558\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ub420 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub294 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\uc5d0 \uac07\ud600 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ubd95\uad34\ub97c \uc6a9\uc778\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\ub85c \ud76c\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \uac70\uc758 \ud56d\uc0c1 \ud574\uc654\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubd88\uac00\ud53c\ud55c \uac00\uce58 \uc808\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubbfc\uac10 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uacfc \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ucc44\uad8c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc2e0\ud654 \ubd95\uad34\u201d 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