{"id":51097,"date":"2026-07-09T03:58:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T03:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%eb%b6%80%ec%b1%84-%ec%a0%95%eb%a6%ac%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a4%91%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9e%ac%ec%a0%95%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%952026%eb%85%84-%ed%95%98%eb%b0%98\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T03:58:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T03:58:53","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%eb%b6%80%ec%b1%84-%ec%a0%95%eb%a6%ac%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a4%91%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9e%ac%ec%a0%95%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%952026%eb%85%84-%ed%95%98%eb%b0%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%eb%b6%80%ec%b1%84-%ec%a0%95%eb%a6%ac%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a4%91%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9e%ac%ec%a0%95%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%952026%eb%85%84-%ed%95%98%eb%b0%98\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \u201c\ubd80\ucc44 \uc815\ub9ac\ub85c \uc911\uad6d \uc7ac\uc815\uae30\uc870 \uae34\ucd95\u20262026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591 \uae30\ub300 \uc81c\ud55c\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc9c0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80\ub4e4\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5 \ubd80\uc591\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc815\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub97c \ub450\uba74\uc11c \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ud55c\uce35 \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8\ud588\ub2e4. TD\ub294 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30(H2) \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba70, \uc790\uc0ac \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uc778 4.6% \ub300\ube44 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 4.0~4.2% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud55c \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ubd80\uc591\uc740 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP\uac00 4%\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \uc218\uce58\ub85c \ub098\uc62c \uacbd\uc6b0, \ucd94\uac00 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ucd94\uce21\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubd80\uc591\ucc45\uc774 \uc9d1\ud589\ub418\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud22c\uc785\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \uc9d1\ud589 \uc18d\ub3c4 \uc81c\uace0\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc774 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \ub300\uc751\uc740 \uc9c0\ubc29\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc758 \uc870\uae30\u00b7\uc2e0\uc18d\ud654\uc640 \uc0ac\uc5c5 \uc2b9\uc778 \uc808\ucc28 \ub2e8\ucd95\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uba70, \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80\uac00 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \uc2ec\uc0ac \ubc0f \uc0ac\uc5c5\uc131 \ud310\ub2e8 \uae30\uc900\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uac70\ub860\ub410\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec 3\ubd84\uae30 \ub9d0 \uc778\ubbfc\uc740\ud589(PBoC)\uc758 10bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd5c\ub300 \ud558\ubc29 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ud22c\uc790 \uae09\ub77d\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud558\uba70, \ub0b4\uc218 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc6b0\uc120 \uacfc\uc81c\ub85c \ub0b4\uc138\uc6b4 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\uc640\ub294 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Fiscal Tightening And Debt Clean-Up <\/h3>\n

\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uae34\ucd95 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ubc29 \uad00\ub8cc\ub4e4\uc774 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc815\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \ubd80\ucc44\uac00 GDP\uc758 80%\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc120 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0\ub418\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc7ac\uc815 \uaddc\uc728\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucd08\uc810\uc774 \uac15\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud558\uae30\ub294 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ubd80\uc591\ucc45\uc740 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\uba70 4.0% \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \ub54c\uc5d0\uc57c \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Modest Stimulus And Policy Response Expectations <\/h3>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub3fc \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI\uac00 \uacbd\uae30 \ud655\uc7a5\uacfc \uc704\ucd95\uc744 \uac00\ub974\ub294 50\uc120\uc744 \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, 2\ubd84\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 4%\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2e0\uaddc \ubd80\uc591\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \u2018\uc124(\u8aaa)\u2019\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc5d0\ub294 \ud568\uc815\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc815\ucc45 \ub300\uc751\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc9c0\ucd9c \ud655\ub300\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc9d1\ud589 \uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ubc29\uc810\uc774 \ucc0d\ud790 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud589\uc774 \ub208\uc5d0 \ub744\uac8c \ub354\ub3a0\ub358 \uc9c0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \ud2b9\uc218\ucc44(\ud2b9\ubcc4\ucc44) \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc870\ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc758 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uad6c\ub9ac \ub4f1 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc6a9 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\uc5d0 \ud558\ubc29 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubcf8\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uac15\uc138\uc7a5(\ubd88\ub7f0)\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud560 \uc815\ub3c4\ub294 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

3\ubd84\uae30 \ud6c4\ubc18 PBoC\uc758 10bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4 \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\ub098\ub9c8 \uc644\ucda9 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \u2018\ubbf8\uc138 \uc644\ud654\u2019\ub294 \uc704\uc548\ud654\uc5d0 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uac00\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. TD\ub294 USD\/CNY\uac00 \uc644\ub9cc\ud558\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9(\uc704\uc548\ud654 \uc57d\uc138)\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubcf8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ubd80\uc591 \uae30\ub300, \ud568\uc815\uc77c\uae4c?\u201d TD\ub294 \uc9c0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc815\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uba70 \uc911\uad6d \uc7ac\uc815\uc774 \uae34\ucd95\uc73c\ub85c \uc120\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8. 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP 4%\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18\uc774\uba74 \ucd94\uce21 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654, \ub300\uc751\uc740 \uc9d1\ud589 \uac00\uc18d\u00b710bp \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51097\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}