{"id":51044,"date":"2026-07-08T12:28:57","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T12:28:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/mufg-6%ec%9b%94-fomc-%ec%9d%98%ec%82%ac%eb%a1%9d-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9d%98%ec%84%b1-%eb%96%a8%ec%96%b4%ec%a0%b8-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%c2%b7\/"},"modified":"2026-07-08T12:28:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T12:28:57","slug":"mufg-6%ec%9b%94-fomc-%ec%9d%98%ec%82%ac%eb%a1%9d-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9d%98%ec%84%b1-%eb%96%a8%ec%96%b4%ec%a0%b8-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%c2%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/mufg-6%ec%9b%94-fomc-%ec%9d%98%ec%82%ac%eb%a1%9d-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9d%98%ec%84%b1-%eb%96%a8%ec%96%b4%ec%a0%b8-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%c2%b7\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG, 6\uc6d4 FOMC \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d \u2018\uc2dc\uc758\uc131 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc838\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\u2026\uc9c0\ud45c \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ud30c \uae30\uc870 \uc57d\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"

MUFG\ub294 6\uc6d4 FOMC \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc2dc\uc758\uc131\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c \ub454\ud654\uc640 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uac00 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\uae34\ucd95) \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc774\uc720\uc5d0\uc11c\ub2e4. MUFG\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uc640 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc744 \ub530\ub77c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc5ec \uc654\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud558\uba70, \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub418\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\uba74 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad6c\ub3c4\uac00 \ub418\uac10\uae30(\uc5b8\uc640\uc778\ub4dc)\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

MUFG\ub294 \ud604\ud589 OIS(\uc775\uc77c\ubb3c\uc9c0\uc218\uc2a4\uc651) \uac00\uaca9 \ud615\uc131\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud588\ub2e4. 2% \ubb3c\uac00\ubaa9\ud45c\uac00 \uc8fc\uc694 \u2018\uc575\ucee4\u2019\ub85c \uc7ac\ucc28 \ud655\uc778\ub410\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc778\uc2dd\ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc131\uc744 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ud574\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\ub294 6\uc6d4 12\uc77c\ub85c \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc81c\ucd9c\ub410\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uba70 \ub2f9\uc2dc Nymex WTI\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 85\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 17.5% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. MUFG\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 7\uc6d4 29\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc57d 30%\ub85c, 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub204\uc801 \uc57d 40bp\uc758 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc790\uc0ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc2dc\uc810\uae4c\uc9c0 \u2018\uc778\ud558\u2019 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubb34\uac8c\uac00 \uc2e4\ub9b0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c LNG \uc720\uc870\uc120 \ud53c\uaca9 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \uacf5\uc2b5 \ub4f1 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc640, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc8fc\ubcc0\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uad50\ub780 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\uc900 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc131, \uc9c0\ud45c \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc18d \uc57d\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131<\/h3>\n

\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. 6\uc6d4 FOMC \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uad6c(\u820a)\uc815\ubcf4\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc870\uc131\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \u2018\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ub418\ub358 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(NFP)\uc740 15\ub9cc \uba85 \uc99d\uac00\uc5d0 \uadf8\uccd0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4(21\ub9cc \uba85)\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ud558\ud68c\ud558\uba70 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub0c9\uac01\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 CPI\ub294 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc804\ub144\ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 2.8%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub3fc \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ud558\ub294 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. Nymex WTI\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 70\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub0b4\uc678\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba70 \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 85\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \uc810\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud558\ubc29\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uac15\uc138\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud574 \ud615\uc131\ub410\ub2e4. CFTC(\ubbf8 \uc0c1\ud488\uc120\ubb3c\uac70\ub798\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c) \uc790\ub8cc\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uc21c\ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 18\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \u2018\ud63c\uc7a1\ud55c \uac70\ub798(crowded trade)\u2019\ub85c \ubcf4\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654\ud560 \ub54c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc5d0 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c \uc804\ud658\uc744 \uaca8\ub0e5\ud55c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n

\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c, \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 3\ubd84\uae30 \ub9d0 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY) \uc678\uac00\uaca9(OTM) \ud48b \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc720\ub85c\ud654, \uc5d4\ud654 \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \ub300(\u5c0d)\ub2ec\ub7ec \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac70\ub798\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294(defined-risk) \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 7\uc6d4 29\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc57d 30%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4\ubb3c SOFR \uc120\ubb3c \ucf5c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ucd95\uc18c\ud574 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \ub35c\uc5b4\ub0b4\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba70, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ub192\uc740 \uacbd\ub85c\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774 \uad00\uc810\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870 \ub4f1 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\ub3cc\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \uae09\ubc18\ub4f1\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc545\ud654\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\ud558\uc5d0, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbfc\ucca9\uc131\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub418, \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801\uc778 \ud604\uc2e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, \ub418\uac10\uae30 \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1?\u201d MUFG\ub294 6\uc6d4 \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uc774 \uad6c\uc815\ubcf4\uac00 \ub410\uace0 \uace0\uc6a9 \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc131 \uc57d\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \ubca0\ud305 \uacfc\ub3c4, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc20f\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc81c\uc2dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51044\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}