{"id":50956,"date":"2026-07-07T01:27:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T01:27:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%9d%b8%eb%8d%b1%ec%8a%a4-%eb%b6%80%ec%a7%84%ed%95%9c-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b6%94%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T01:27:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T01:27:53","slug":"%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%9d%b8%eb%8d%b1%ec%8a%a4-%eb%b6%80%ec%a7%84%ed%95%9c-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b6%94%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%9d%b8%eb%8d%b1%ec%8a%a4-%eb%b6%80%ec%a7%84%ed%95%9c-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b6%94%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4, \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300 \uc57d\ud654\u2026\uc720\uac00 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc57d\ud654\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed \ucd95\uc18c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \ucd08\ubc18 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ubc18\ub0a9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c(Nonfarm Payrolls) \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc57d\ud654\ub41c \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc7a5\uc911 \uace0\uc810 101.14\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc00\ub9ac\uba70 100.92 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucd94\uac00 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac14\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d-\uc774\ub780 \uae34\uc7a5\uacfc \uc5f0\uacc4\ub3fc \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \uc720\uac00\uc758 \ucd08\ubc18 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc784\uc2dc \ud3c9\ud654 \ud569\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc6b4\ud56d \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, Fed\uc758 2% \ubaa9\ud45c \ubbf8\ub2ec\uacfc \uae34\ucd95\uc801 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uac00\uaca9\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch) \ub3c4\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc774\ub2ec \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \ud655\ub960\uc740 77%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uace0, 9\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131(\uc554\uc2dc \ud655\ub960)\uc740 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804 63%\uc5d0\uc11c 56%\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc678\uad50 \ud611\uc0c1\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacb0\ub860\uc744 \ub0b4\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \ucc44, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ubb38\uc81c, \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc790\uc0b0, \uc81c\uc7ac \uc644\ud654, \ud14c\ud5e4\ub780\uc758 \ud575 \uad00\ub828 \uc57d\uc18d \ub4f1\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc774\uacac\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub410\ub2e4. \uac70\uc2dc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub294 6\uc6d4 ISM \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 PMI\uac00 54\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud574 5\uc6d4(54.5) \ub300\ube44 \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\ub098, 23\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \ud655\uc7a5 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \ud654\uc694\uc77c ADP \uace0\uc6a9\ubcc0\ub3d9, \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc2e0\uaddc \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c\uac74\uc218, \uc218\uc694\uc77c FOMC \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uc744 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubaa8\uba58\ud140 \ub454\ud654<\/h3>\n

\uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c Fed\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871(\ub9e4\uc218) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \ub354\uc6b1 \u2018\ubd90\ube48(crowded)\u2019 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ub410\uace0, \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ucd94\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\ub294 \uc904\uc77c \uc2dc\uc810\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uacac\ud574\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ubc88 \uc2dc\uac01 \ubcc0\ud654\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubc30\uacbd\uc740 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4 21\ub9cc\uba85\uc5d0 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 15\ub9cc5,000\uba85 \uc99d\uac00\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uac04\ub2f9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc784\uae08 \uc99d\uac00\uc728\ub3c4 0.2%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uba70, Fed\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uba48\ucd9c \uba85\ubd84\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4. \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uac15\uc138 \ubca0\ud305\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud558\uae30\ub294 \uc27d\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud30c\uc0dd \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc911\ub9bd\uc801 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n

\ub610\ud55c WTI \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 78\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uc624\uba70 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc6d0\ucc9c\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc644\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. 6\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 3.8%\ub85c \u2018\ub048\uc9c8\uae34\u2019 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc640 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub0c9\uac01\uc740 Fed\uac00 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc5ec\uc57c \ud560 \uae34\uae09\uc131\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd98\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \uac04 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc911\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \uac70\ub798 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 EUR\/USD \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle) \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574, \ub2a6\uc5ec\ub984\uc73c\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d \uc2e4\ud604 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 2019\ub144 \uc911\ubc18\ucc98\ub7fc Fed \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ubaa8\ud638\ud588\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ud658\uc2dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7a5\uae30\uac04\uc758 \ud6a1\ubcf4(\ud1b5\ud569) \uad6d\uba74\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc218\uc694\uc77c \uacf5\uac1c\ub420 FOMC \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018\ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud55c(\uc790\ub8cc \uc758\uc874\uc801) \uc77c\uc2dc \uc815\uc9c0\u2019(pause)\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \ubb38\uad6c\uac00 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 101.15 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc800\ud56d\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 100.50 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \uc544\ub798\ub85c\uc758 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc774\ud0c8\uc740 \ub354 \uae4a\uc740 \uc870\uc815 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \ud658\uacbd\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc6b4\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[\ud658\uc2dc] \u7f8e \uace0\uc6a9 \uc1fc\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84 \ubc18\ub0a9\u2026Fed \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300 \uc57d\ud654\ub85c 9\uc6d4 \ud655\ub960 \ud558\ub77d. \uc720\uac00 \uc870\uc815\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc555\ub825 \uc644\ud654. FOMC \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d \uc8fc\ubaa9, \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uc0c1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50956\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}