{"id":50954,"date":"2026-07-07T00:57:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T00:57:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%89%b4%ec%a7%88%eb%9e%9c%eb%93%9c%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8-%ec%86%8d-rbnz-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T00:57:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T00:57:43","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%89%b4%ec%a7%88%eb%9e%9c%eb%93%9c%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8-%ec%86%8d-rbnz-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%89%b4%ec%a7%88%eb%9e%9c%eb%93%9c%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8-%ec%86%8d-rbnz-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c, \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc18d RBNZ 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ub9dd\u2026\uc0c1\ubc29 \uc5ec\ub825 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBNZ)\uc774 7\uc6d4 8\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 2.5%\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8 \uc124\ubb38 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\uc640 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uc100\ub3c4\ubcf4\ub4dc\uc758 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0 \uc2e0\ud638, \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825 \uc644\ud654, \ucde8\uc57d\ud55c \uad6d\ub0b4 \uacbd\uae30 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ub4f1\uc744 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\ub2ec\ub7ec(NZD)\uac00 \uc57d\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, G10 \ud1b5\ud654 1\uc77c \uc131\uacfc\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d4\ud654(JPY)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud55c \ub2e8\uacc4 \uc704\uc778 \ucd5c\ud558\uc704\uad8c(\ud558\ub2e8\uc5d0\uc11c \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8)\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc720\uac00\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ud3d0\uc1c4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \ubd80\uac01\ub410\uace0, \ube0c\ub808\uba3c \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 5\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud78c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 6\uc6d4 17\uc77c \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uc591\ud574\uac01\uc11c(MOU)\ub97c \uccb4\uacb0\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uc804\uc7c1 \ubc1c\ubc1c \uc9c1\uc804 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uc654\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 1\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 4\ud68c\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 2.25%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 3.18%\ub85c \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc100\ub3c4\ubcf4\ub4dc\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c 3~3.25% \ubc94\uc704\uc640 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc77c\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 NZD\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uace0, RBNZ\uc758 \ud1a4 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 NZD\/USD\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub192\uc740(\ucd9c\ub801\uc774\ub294) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Limited Upside for NZD and Downside Risk<\/h3>\n

\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub0b4\uc77c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud658\uc728\uc5d0 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc624\ubc84\ub098\uc774\ud2b8 \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \uc2a4\uc651(OIS)\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac 2027\ub144 \uc911\ubc18\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.20%\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 RBNZ\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \uc804\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uba70, \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\ub294 \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ub354 \ud070(\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ud558\ubc29\uc73c\ub85c \uce58\uc6b0\uce5c) \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \uae34\ucd95 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub9dd\uc124\uc774\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub4e4\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \ucde8\uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubd84\uae30 CPI\ub294 0.8%\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub3fc \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \ud558\ud68c\ud588\uace0, \ucd5c\uadfc ANZ \uae30\uc5c5\uc2e0\ub8b0\uc9c0\uc218 \uc11c\ubca0\uc774\ub294 \uc911\ub9bd \uae30\uc900\uc120\uc778 50\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc694\uc778\ub4e4\uc740 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \ub9de\ubb3c\ub824 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \ucde8\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc904\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Trading Strategies and Historical Parallels<\/h3>\n

\uc774\ubbf8 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uae34\ucd95\uc774 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 NZD\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 RBNZ\uc758 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ud1a4\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb3c\ub7ec\uc11c\ub294 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub3c4 \uc27d\uac8c \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc138\ub97c \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud658\uc728\uc774 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ucc3e\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc94\uc704 \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c NZD\/USD\uac00 \uba38\ubb3c\uba74 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc544\uc774\uc5b8 \ucf58\ub3c4\ub974 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825\uacfc \ud558\ubc29\uc774 \uc77c\uc815 \ubd80\ubd84 \uc644\ucda9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 RBNZ\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub300\ub85c \uc778\uc0c1\ud558\ub418, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ud655\uc57d\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 2014~2015\ub144 \uae30\uac04\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 RBNZ \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ud0a4\uc704\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c \ud604\uc2e4\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uc55e\uc11c\uac08 \ub54c \ud1b5\ud654\ub294 \ud1a4 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ucde8\uc57d\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc804\ub840\ub294 \uc624\ub298 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cRBNZ 7\uc6d4 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\u201d \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\uc5d0\ub3c4\u2026\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c, \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\u00b7CPI \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uacbd\uae30 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ud30c \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988 \uc81c\ud55c. \uae34\ucd95 \uc120\ubc18\uc601 \uc18d NZD \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825 \uc81c\ud55c\u00b7\ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uacbd\uace0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50758,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50954\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}