{"id":50948,"date":"2026-07-06T23:27:52","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T23:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%86%8d-%ed%8c%8c%ec%9a%b4%eb%93%9c%ed%99%94-%ed%9a%a1%eb%b3%b4%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T23:27:52","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T23:27:52","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%86%8d-%ed%8c%8c%ec%9a%b4%eb%93%9c%ed%99%94-%ed%9a%a1%eb%b3%b4%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%86%8d-%ed%8c%8c%ec%9a%b4%eb%93%9c%ed%99%94-%ed%9a%a1%eb%b3%b4%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc18d \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654 \ud6a1\ubcf4\u2026\uc601\uad6d \uc815\uce58 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \uba39\uad6c\ub984"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\ub294 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \uc881\uc740 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc8fc\ucd08 \uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c(risk-off) \ubd84\uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubbf8\uad6d \ub178\ub3d9\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud574 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00(hawkish repricing)\ub97c \uc644\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a8 \uc810\uc774 \uc774\ub97c \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud588\ub2e4. \uc791\uc131 \uc2dc\uc810 \uae30\uc900 GBP\/USD\ub294 1.3357\ub85c, \uc7a5\uc911 \uc800\uc810 1.3328\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud55c \ub4a4 8\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(NFP)\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uace0 \uc774\uc804 \ub2ec \uc218\uce58\ub3c4 \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 Fed \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c 4.5% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 12\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 22bp\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. 7\uc6d4\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 Prime Terminal\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \ud655\ub960\uc744 77%, \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 23%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ud63c\uc870\uc600\ub2e4. 6\uc6d4 ISM \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 PMI\ub294 54\ub85c 5\uc6d4(54.5)\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 47.9\uc5d0\uc11c 51.2\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0 \ud22c\uc785\ube44\uc6a9\uc740 \uc644\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc9c4\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589(BoE) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ucd5c\uc18c 44bp \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub358 \ubc18\uba74, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 17bp\ub9cc \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba70 \u2018\ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1\u2019 \ud655\ub960\uc744 70%\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ubbf8-\uc774\ub780 \ud68c\ub2f4\uc740 \ud1a0\uc694\uc77c \uc774\uc2ac\ub77c\ub9c8\ubc14\ub4dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f4\ub9b4 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, \uc601\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucc28\uae30 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc678\uc2e0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc5d0\ub4dc \ubc00\ub9ac\ubc34\ub4dc(Ed Miliband) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 55%\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c GBP\/USD\ub294 1.3406 \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 SMA(\ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0) \ubc00\uc9d1 \uad6c\uac04\uacfc 1.3513 \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \ucd94\uc138\uc120 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uc704\uce58\ud574 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, RSI\ub294 55 \uc548\ud30e, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 1.3159 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uac15\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c \uc774\ud6c4 Fed \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n<p>\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\ub294 \uae30\uc874 1.3300~1.3400 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ud0c8\ud574, \uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 7\uc6d4 6\uc77c) \uae30\uc900 1.3280 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c 6\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud574 21\ub9cc\uac1c\uc758 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \ub4a4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc77c\ubd80 \ub418\uc0b4\uc544\ub0ac\uace0, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ud655\uace0\ud788 \u2018\ub3d9\uacb0\u2019 \uae30\uc870\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc778\uc2dd\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc804\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ud615\uc131\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud574\ub2f9 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc758\uc911\uc744 \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc1c\ud45c \uae30\uc900 \ubbf8\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 2.7%\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. CME FedWatch Tool\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc774\ub2ec \ub9d0 \uc5f4\ub9ac\ub294 FOMC\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac 40%\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \uc8fc \uc804 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub358 23%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc601\uad6d \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uba85\ud655\uc131 \ubc0f \uc635\uc158 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n<p>\uc601\uad6d \uce21\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5d0\ub4dc \ubc00\ub9ac\ubc34\ub4dc\uac00 \uc2e0\uc784 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc815\ub418\uba70 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc77c\ubd80 \ud574\uc18c\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf8\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud3c9\uac00 \uad6d\uba74\uc774\ub2e4. \ub354 \uc2dc\uae09\ud55c \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \uc601\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c, \ucd5c\uadfc CPI\uac00 2.4%\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub3fc \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589 \ubaa9\ud45c(2%)\ub97c \uc644\uace0\ud558\uac8c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2a4\uc651 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc751\ud574, 11\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uae4c\uc9c0 BoE\uc758 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \uc635\uc158 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \ub0ae\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. GBP\/USD 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 6.5%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc555\ucd95\ub3fc 1\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 8.0%\ub97c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uac8c \ud558\ud68c\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc635\uc158\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc548\uc774\ud574\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uacb0\uc815 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc800\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc778 1.3159 \ud558\ud5a5 \uc774\ud0c8\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub2e4\uc6b4\uc0ac\uc774\ub4dc \ud5e4\uc9c0)\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ube44\uc6a9 \ud6a8\uc728\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc740 \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(long strangle) \ub9e4\uc218 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc0c1\ucda9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uae30\u00b7\uc815\ucc45 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub204\uc801\ub418\uba70 \ud658\uc728\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \u2018\uc870\uc6a9\ud55c \uc7a5\uc138\u2019\ub97c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub0a0 \ub54c, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc218\uc775\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\/\ub2ec\ub7ec, \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \uc774\ud0c8 \u2018\ubcc0\uace1\uc810\u2019\uc778\uac00: \ubbf8 \uace0\uc6a9 \uac15\uc138\ub85c Fed 7\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1\ud655\ub960 40%\ub85c \uc810\ud504, BoE 11\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \ubc18\uc601. GBP\/USD 1.3280\ub300, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 6.5% \u2018\uc800\uac00\u2019 \uc635\uc158\ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50948\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}