{"id":50946,"date":"2026-07-06T22:57:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T22:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%c2%b7ecb-%ed%86%b5%ed%99%94%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ec%97%87%ea%b0%88%eb%a6%bc%ea%b3%bc-%ec%97%b0%ed%9c%b4-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ed%95%9c%ec%82%b0%ed%95%9c-%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98%ec%97%90\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T22:57:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T22:57:44","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%c2%b7ecb-%ed%86%b5%ed%99%94%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ec%97%87%ea%b0%88%eb%a6%bc%ea%b3%bc-%ec%97%b0%ed%9c%b4-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ed%95%9c%ec%82%b0%ed%95%9c-%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98%ec%97%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%c2%b7ecb-%ed%86%b5%ed%99%94%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ec%97%87%ea%b0%88%eb%a6%bc%ea%b3%bc-%ec%97%b0%ed%9c%b4-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ed%95%9c%ec%82%b0%ed%95%9c-%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98%ec%97%90\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900\u00b7ECB \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc\uacfc \uc5f0\ud734 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud55c\uc0b0\ud55c \uac70\ub798\uc5d0 \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\u2026EUR\/USD \ud558\ub77d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uc720\ub85c\ud654\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub3c5\ub9bd\uae30\ub150\uc77c \uc5f0\ud734\ub85c \uae38\uc5b4\uc84c\ub358 \uc8fc\ub9d0 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub41c \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\ub294 1.1421\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba70 \ud558\ub8e8 \uae30\uc900 0.12% \ub0b4\ub838\ub2e4. \uc8fc\ucd08 \uc218\uae09\uc740 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc7a0\uc7a0\ud55c \ud3b8\uc774\uc5c8\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc640 \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc7ac\uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uc7a0\uc815 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud569\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uc644\ud654\ub41c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(NFP)\uacfc \ub454\ud654\ub41c \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba70 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c Fed\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uacfc \uc62c\ud574 ECB\uac00 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ubaa8\ub450 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ud655\uc0b0\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 56%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub410\uace0, 9\uc6d4 ECB \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 50% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud588\ub2e4. Fed \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3.50%~3.75%\uc778 \ubc18\uba74 ECB \uc608\uce58\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2.25%\ub85c, \uc774 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\uac00 100.56 \uc800\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 101.04 \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ubc1b\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774 \ub410\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ud45c \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 6\uc6d4 ISM \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 PMI\uac00 54.0\uc73c\ub85c, 5\uc6d4(54.5)\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\ub098 23\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \ud655\uc7a5 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\uc640 \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \uc555\ubc15<\/h3>\n

\uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 7\uc6d4 6\uc77c) EUR\/USD\ub294 1.0750\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc57d\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 Fed\uc640 ECB\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uace0\uc218\ud558\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc774 \uc815\ud574\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc591 \uc9c0\uc5ed \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \u2018\ub048\uc801\uc784\u2019\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 2.6% \uc218\uc900\uc774\uba70, \uc720\ub85c\uc874\ub3c4 2.7%\ub85c \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ucabd\uc774\ub4e0 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc790\uc2e0 \uc788\uac8c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \ud558\ud68c\ud558\uba70(\uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00 20\ub9cc9,000\uba85) Fed\uc758 \uc644\ud654 \uc804\ud658 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub2e8\ud589\ub420 \ud655\ub960\uc744 65% \uc774\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc8fc\uc694\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825(\uc5ed\ud48d)\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

ECB \uae30\uc870, \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131<\/h3>\n

\ubc18\uba74 ECB\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc774\ubbf8 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \u2018\uc77c\uc2dc \uc815\uc9c0(pause)\u2019 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud574 \uc654\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc740 1\ubd84\uae30 \ud3c9\uade0 4.7%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud55c \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\uac00 \uc9c0\ub098\uce60 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc6b0\ub824\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c ECB \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\ub85c\ud654\uc5d0 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 Fed \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac 5.25%, ECB 3.75%\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uac00\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc774 \uaca9\ucc28\uc758 \u2018\uc218\uc900\u2019\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \u2018\ubcc0\ud654\u2019\ub2e4. Fed\uac00 \ub354 \uc774\ub978 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba74\uc11c, EUR\/USD\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddles)\ucc98\ub7fc \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub3c4 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc635\uc158\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c EUR\/USD 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc57d 6.5%\ub85c, \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uae30\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \ud3b8\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc758 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \ub3cc\ud30c\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc800\ub834\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI)\uac00 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud575\uc2ec \ucd09\ub9e4\ub85c \ubd80\uc0c1\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec, \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ud734 \ud6c4 \uc7ac\uac1c\uc7a5\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uc57d\uc138\u2026Fed\u00b7ECB \uae30\ub300 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815 \uc18d \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc6b0\uc704. \ubb3c\uac00 \ub048\uc801\uc784\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9\ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\u2191, CPI \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}