{"id":50668,"date":"2026-07-01T22:21:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T22:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%bd%9c%eb%a1%ac%eb%b9%84%ec%95%84-%ec%a4%91%ec%95%99%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89banco-de-la-republica-%ea%b9%9c%ec%a7%9d-75bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-12%eb%a1%9c\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T22:21:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T22:21:09","slug":"%ec%bd%9c%eb%a1%ac%eb%b9%84%ec%95%84-%ec%a4%91%ec%95%99%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89banco-de-la-republica-%ea%b9%9c%ec%a7%9d-75bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-12%eb%a1%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%bd%9c%eb%a1%ac%eb%b9%84%ec%95%84-%ec%a4%91%ec%95%99%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89banco-de-la-republica-%ea%b9%9c%ec%a7%9d-75bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-12%eb%a1%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"\ucf5c\ub86c\ube44\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Banco de la Rep\u00fablica), \uae5c\uc9dd 75bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 12%\ub85c\u2026\ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5\u00b7\uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ucf5c\ub86c\ube44\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Banco de la Rep\u00fablica)\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 75bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 12%\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uba70 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784(Societe Generale)\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 50bp \uc778\uc0c1\uacfc \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\ub97c \ubaa8\ub450 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \ud3ed\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0\ub294 \uba85\uc2dc\uc801 \uc120\uc81c\uc548\ub0b4(forward guidance)\uac00 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \uae30\uc870\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \uc778\uc0c1 \ud3ed \uc790\uccb4\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc545\ud654\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uc900\ube44\uac00 \ub3fc \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e8\uae30 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc0c1\ubc29\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ub410\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5d8\ub2c8\ub1e8(El Ni\u00f1o), \uc784\uae08 \uc5f0\ub3d9(indexation), \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc9c0\ubaa9\ub410\ub2e4. \uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784\uc740 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate)\uac00 12.50%\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \ud574\ub2f9 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc815\ud1b5\uc801(orthodox) \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub530\ub978\ub2e4\uba74 2027\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30(1Q27) \uc644\ud654 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc5f4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\ub098, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ube44\uace0\uc815(unanchored) \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc774\uace0 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uadf8\ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uae34\ucd95\uc801 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Impacts on Yield Curve, Monetary Policy, and Strategy<\/h3>\n<p>\ucf5c\ub86c\ube44\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 75bp \uae5c\uc9dd \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 12%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b0 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uae08\ub9ac \uace1\uc120\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04(\ud504\ub7f0\ud2b8\uc5d4\ub4dc)\uc740 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654(repricing)\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 6\uc6d4 \uc804\ub144\ub3d9\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac 8.9%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \uc5d8\ub2c8\ub1e8 \uae30\uc0c1 \ud328\ud134\uacfc \uc5f0\uad00\ub41c \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ucef8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ucd5c\uc18c 12.50%\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2027\ub144 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\uc870 \uc720\uc9c0\ub97c \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uace0\uc815\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc740 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654(flattening)\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ucee4\ube0c \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub108(\uc7a5\ub2e8\uae30 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ucd95\uc18c) \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\uc5d0 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uba70, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 2\ub144 \uc2a4\uc651\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\uae09(pay fixed), 10\ub144 \uc2a4\uc651\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\ucde8(receive) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2021~2022\ub144 \ube0c\ub77c\uc9c8\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801(\ud504\ub7f0\ud2b8\ub85c\ub529) \uae34\ucd95 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uc0c1\uae30\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294\ub370, \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \ub17c\uc758\ub418\uae30 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc804\ubd80\ud130 \ucee4\ube0c\uac00 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc5ed\uc804(inversion)\ub410\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uba85\uc2dc\uc801 \uc120\uc81c\uc548\ub0b4 \ubd80\uc7ac\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubcf4\uc720(owning interest rate volatility)\uac00 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2\ubd84\uae30 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 1.1%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc640\uc911\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc804\uac1c\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uacbd\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Colombian Peso Outlook in a High Rate Environment<\/h3>\n<p>\ucf5c\ub86c\ube44\uc544 \ud398\uc18c(COP)\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ud655\ub300\ub41c \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28(interest rate differential)\uac00 \uac15\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc57d\uc138(\uc20f) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub192\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ub192\uc740 \uce90\ub9ac(carry) \uc218\uc775\uc740 \ud398\uc18c \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uba70, \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc120\ubb3c\ud658(\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc) \uacc4\uc57d\uc774\ub098 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \ud45c\ud604\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc801\uc808\ud558\ub2e4. \ud398\uc18c\uc758 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(3-month implied volatility)\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 15%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ucf5c\ub86c\ube44\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1 \uae68\uace0 75bp \u2018\ube45\uc2a4\ud15d\u2019\u2026\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 12%\ub85c. \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u2191\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc885 12.50% \uc2dc\uc0ac, \ucee4\ube0c \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218 \ubd80\uac01, \ud398\uc18c\ub294 \uace0\uce90\ub9ac\ub85c \uc9c0\uc9c0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50668\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}