{"id":50424,"date":"2026-06-29T04:52:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T04:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%99%94%ed%95%b4-%eb%ac%b4%eb%93%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-%ea%b0%9c%ec%9e%85-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%84-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T04:52:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T04:52:07","slug":"%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%99%94%ed%95%b4-%eb%ac%b4%eb%93%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-%ea%b0%9c%ec%9e%85-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%84-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%99%94%ed%95%b4-%eb%ac%b4%eb%93%9c%ec%97%90-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-%ea%b0%9c%ec%9e%85-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%84-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud654\ud574 \ubb34\ub4dc\uc5d0 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4 \uc644\ud654\u2026\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4, \u7f8e \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 162\uc5d4 \ubd80\uadfc \ud6a1\ubcf4"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY\ub294 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc138\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c 161.80 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub41c \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uc678\uad50 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uacfc \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \ud658\uc728 \uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc800\uc6b8\uc9c8\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 162.00\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \ub808\ubca8 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070(\ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \uc5c6\ub294) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc608\uc815\uc778 \ubbf8\uad6d 6\uc6d4 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c(NFP)\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc758 \ucd09\ub9e4\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubbf8 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc778\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ud638 \uad50\uc804\uc774 \uc624\uac04 \ub4a4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc774\ub780\uc774 \u201c\ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\uae30\ub85c(stand down for now)\u201d \ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uace0, \uc7a0\uc815 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ud574\ud611\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \uc544\uc9c1 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc120\ubc15\uc740 \uc790\uc720\ub86d\uac8c \uc774\ub3d9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. Axios\ub294 \uc591\uad6d\uc774 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \uce74\ud0c0\ub974\uc5d0\uc11c \ud68c\ub3d9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\ud558\ub77c \ubbf8\ub178\ub8e8 \uad00\ubc29\ubd80\uc7a5\uad00\uc774 \ud544\uc694 \uc2dc \uc678\ud658 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc801\uc808\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub97c \ucde8\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ) \uc2ec\uc758\uc704\uc6d0 \ub2e4\ubb34\ub77c \ub098\uc624\ud0a4\ub294 \uba87 \ub2ec\uc5d0 \ud55c \ubc88\uc529 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uba74 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub97c \ub192\uc77c \uc900\ube44\ub3c4 \ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. BOJ\ub294 7\uc6d4 30~31\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc5f4\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud558\ub098 \ubd84\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc 6\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc2e4\uc2dc\ub41c \ub85c\uc774\ud130 \uc124\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc218\uc758 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\uac00 4\ubd84\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 1.25%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub77c\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Current Market Dynamics and Risks<\/h3>\n

\ud604\uc7ac \ub0a0\uc9dc(2026\ub144 6\uc6d4 29\uc77c)\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c USD\/JPY\ub294 161.80\uc744 \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc881\uace0 \uae34\uc7a5\uac10 \uc788\ub294 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uac04 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\uc740 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub0ae\ucdb0 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc778 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uacfc \ub2f9\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uace0\uac00 \ucda9\ub3cc\ud558\ub294 \uae4c\ub2e4\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc870\uc131\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785\uc774\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \ud658\uc728\uc774 162.00 \ub808\ubca8\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud560\uc218\ub85d \uadf8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 \ubd04 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud574 9.8\uc870 \uc5d4 \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \ud22c\uc785\ud55c \uc804\ub840\ub294 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \ud544\uc694 \uc2dc \uacfc\uac10\ud558\uac8c \ud589\ub3d9\ud560 \uc758\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc774 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc800\ud56d\uc120 \uc704\ucabd \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 USD\/JPY \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \uac1c\uc785\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc635\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc18c\uba78\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uadfc\ubcf8 \uc694\uc778\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\ub2e4. BOJ\uac00 6\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uadfc \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4, \ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uac04 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 375bp(3.75%p) \uc774\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc555\ub825 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \uac1c\uc785\uc73c\ub85c USD\/JPY\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Key Catalysts and Longer-Term Perspective<\/h3>\n

\uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ud310\uc744 \ud754\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ucd09\ub9e4\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\ub294 \uc57d 19\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uba85 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c, \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub418 \u2018\uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\u2019 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc544\ub2cc \uc218\uce58\ub97c \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc57d \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 USD\/JPY\uac00 \uace7\ubc14\ub85c \uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4 \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud558\uba70 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc911\uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 BOJ \uc2ec\uc758\uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc774\uc804 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc11c\uc11c\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \uc5d4\ud654 \uac15\uc138 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc640 \uc815\ubd80 \uac04 \u2018\ub300\uce58\u2019 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc20f \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(short straddle)\uc774\ub098 \uc544\uc774\uc5b8 \ucf58\ub3c4\ub974(iron condor) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc140\ub9c1 \ubcfc\ub77c\ud2f8\ub9ac\ud2f0)\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 161.80\uc120 \uc18c\ud3ed \ubc18\ub4f1\u2026162\uc5d4 \u2018\uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4\u2019\uc5d0 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \uc2e4\uc885. \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654\ub294 \uc5d4 \uc57d\uc138, \ub2e4\ub9cc BOJ \ub9e4\ud30c \ubc1c\uc5b8\uacfc \uc8fc\ub9d0 NFP\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd09\ubc1c \ubcc0\uc218.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50423,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50423"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}