{"id":50319,"date":"2026-06-26T08:51:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T08:51:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-pce-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b6%94%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ec%95%bd%ed%99%94%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%ba%90%eb%82%98\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T08:51:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T08:51:11","slug":"%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-pce-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b6%94%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ec%95%bd%ed%99%94%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%ba%90%eb%82%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-pce-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b6%94%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ec%95%bd%ed%99%94%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%ba%90%eb%82%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d PCE \ub454\ud654\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc57d\ud654\u2026\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uce90\ub098\ub2e4\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d, BoC\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD\ub294 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \uc720\ub7fd\uc7a5 \ucd08\ubc18 1.4190\uc120\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c) \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub204\uadf8\ub7ec\ub728\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 4.1% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 2023\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c 4.0%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(0.5%)\ub97c \ubc11\ub3c4\ub294 0.4%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub410\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uc2dc\uac04\ub300 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc774\ub0a0 \ud6c4\ubc18 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 7\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 28.9%\ub85c, \uc774\uc804 34.2%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BoC)\uc774 \uc5f0\ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub780 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud558\uba70, \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uc740 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801\uc778 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc81c\ud55c\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \uc720\uc5f0\uc131 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud588\ub2e4. \ubcc4\ub3c4\ub85c \ub85c\uc774\ud130\ub294 12\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 BoC \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\ub300\uac00 17bp\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc57d 60bp\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubaa9\ud45c(1~3%)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Immediate Market Reaction And US Dollar Pressure<\/h3>\n

\uc0c1\ubc18\ub41c \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uac10\uc548\ud560 \ub54c, USD\/CAD\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc 1.4190\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc628 \uac83\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2e8\uae30 \ubc18\uc751\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58\ub3c4 \ud604\uc7ac \ud655\ub960\uc774 30% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 6\uc6d4 26\uc77c \uae30\uc900, \uc624\ub298\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud14c\ub9c8\ub294 \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Medium-Term Outlook For USD\/CAD<\/h3>\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud070 \uc5ed\ud48d\uc774 \ubd88 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ud3c9\ud654 \ud569\uc758\ub85c WTI \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 78.50\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub77d\ud574 2025\ub144 \ucd08 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc758 \uad50\uc5ed\uc870\uac74\uc744 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\uba70 \u2018\ub8e8\ub2c8(Loonie)\u2019 \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \uc81c\uc57d\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

BoC\uc758 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658(dovish pivot) \uc5ed\uc2dc CAD \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(Statistics Canada)\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc 4\uc6d4 GDP\uac00 0.1% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ubb34\uae30\ud55c \uc911\ub2e8\ud560 \uba85\ubd84\uc774 \uc0dd\uae34 \uc148\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 12\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \ud3ed\uc774 17bp\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ub300\ube44 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 BoC\ubcf4\ub2e4 \u2018\ub354 \uc624\ub798, \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\u2019\uc758 \uae34\ucd95 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uad34\ub9ac(policy divergence)\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8-\uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \ub54c USD\/CAD\uc5d0\ub294 \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uac00\ud574\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 2022~2024\ub144 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc778\ub41c \ud328\ud134\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 PCE \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub97c \uc18c\ud654\ud55c \ub4a4 \uc774 \uad00\uacc4\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac15\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc758 USD\/CAD \uc870\uc815\uc740 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc7ac\uc9c4\uc785 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uae30 7\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \ub610\ub294 8\uc6d4\ubb3c\uc758 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) USD\/CAD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uc2dc\uac04\ub300 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc218(\ucd5c\uadfc 98.5\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\ud68c)\uc640 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc758 \ub2e4\uc74c \uace0\uc6a9\ub3d9\ud5a5\uc870\uc0ac(Labour Force Survey)\ub97c \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uc810\uac80\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4. \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0, USD\/CAD\uc758 \u2018\uc800\ud56d\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc801\uc740 \uacbd\ub85c(path of least resistance)\u2019\uac00 \uc0c1\ubc29\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uac15\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018PCE \uc1fc\ud06c\u2019\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc8fc\ucda4\u2026USD\/CAD 1.4190 \ud558\ub77d. Fed 7\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1\ud655\ub960 28.9%\ub85c\u2193, BoC\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\ucd94\uac00\uae34\ucd95 \uae30\ub300 17bp. \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\u00b7\uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc911\uae30\uc801 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2dc\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}