{"id":50195,"date":"2026-06-25T04:50:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T04:50:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%97%ac%ed%8c%8c%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-2025%eb%85%84-5%ec%9b%94-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b3%a0%ec%b9%98pce-%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80\/"},"modified":"2026-06-25T04:50:49","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T04:50:49","slug":"%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%97%ac%ed%8c%8c%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-2025%eb%85%84-5%ec%9b%94-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b3%a0%ec%b9%98pce-%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%97%ac%ed%8c%8c%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-2025%eb%85%84-5%ec%9b%94-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b3%a0%ec%b9%98pce-%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc5ec\ud30c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec, 2025\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\u2026PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc55e\ub450\uace0"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 16~17\uc77c \uc5f4\ub9b0 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 1.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c 101.41\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uba70 2025\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc5d0 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uace0 AI \uc5f0\uacc4 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud574 \uc628 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc11c\uc0ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 9\uc6d4 16\uc77c FOMC\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ub3fc 4.00%\uac00 \ub420 \ud655\ub960\uc744 54.6%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc720\uac00\uc640 \uc8fc\uc720\uc18c \ud310\ub9e4\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc740 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc790\uadf9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc740 AI \ub3c4\uad6c\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc791\uc131\ub410\uc73c\uba70 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uac00 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\uc900 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc11c\uc0ac\uac00 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138<\/h3>\n

\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\uac00 106.50 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \ub9d0 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \ucd5c\uadfc 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc778\ub41c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uac10\uc548\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc9c0\ubc30\uc801 \ud14c\ub9c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \uadf8\ub9bc\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc57d\uc18d\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce58\ub294 \u2018\ubbf8\uad6d \uc608\uc678\uc8fc\uc758(US exceptionalism)\u2019 \uc11c\uc0ac\uc5d0 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c 2\uc8fc\uac04 5% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc870\uc815\ubc1b\uc558\uace0, \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \uadf8\uac04 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\ub358 AI \uad00\ub828 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc5f0\uc57d\ud568\uc740 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\uc758 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc6b0\ub824\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub9ac\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc2f1\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ucd09\ub9e4\ub85c \ub5a0\uc624\ub978 PCE<\/h3>\n

\ud604\uc7ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 9\uc6d4 FOMC\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc57d 60%\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \ub192\uc740 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc758 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc5d0 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uc5d0 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\ub294 \u2018\uc5d0\ucf54 \ucc54\ubc84\u2019\uc5d0 \uac07\ud600 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ubc88 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 \uc774\uc81c \ud575\uc2ec \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 WTI \uc6d0\uc720\uac00 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 \uc57d 10% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub048\uc801\ud55c(core) \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uac00\ub9b4 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucf54\uc5b4 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ud558\ud5a5 \ub9ac\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc2f1\uc744 \uacaa\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uad6c\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc804\ud6c4\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae09\ub4f1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub610\ub294 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\uc5d0 \uc218\ud61c\uac00 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ubd84\ud615 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc0ac\uc804\uc5d0 \ud55c\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 2023\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub354\ub514\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc9c0\ubc30\uc801 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc11c\uc0ac\uc640 \ucda9\ub3cc\ud560 \ub54c \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc14\ub014 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c PCE\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ucc28\uac11\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \uc7ac\ud604\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4, FOMC \ub9e4\ud30c \uae30\uc870\uc5d0 1.3% \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \uace0\uc810 \uacbd\uc2e0. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc AI \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \u2018\ubbf8\uad6d \uc608\uc678\uc8fc\uc758\u2019 \uade0\uc5f4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc PCE\uac00 9\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \ubca0\ud305(\uc57d 55~60%) \uc7ac\uc870\uc815 \ucd09\ubc1c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}